行业研究丨深度报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] 餐饮供应链行业深度研究：本轮行业修复逻 辑有何不同？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 餐饮供应链板块正在形成"需求修复+供给趋稳+价格改善"的三重共振，2026 年行业拐点明 确。建议聚焦具备规模、渠道与新品能力的龙头，兼顾低基数改革改善标的。个股层面，龙头 公司通过新品、新渠道挖掘增量（商超定制、新零售、大 B 餐饮共创等），小企业转向代工与细 分，份额向优质产能集中；"价"逻辑开始演绎，CPI 回正与服务消费复苏有望助推估值与盈利 共振。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490519100003 SFC：BQK487 董思远 范晨昊 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 食品、饮料与烟草 cjzqdt11111 [餐饮供应链行业深度研究：本轮行业修复逻辑 Table_Title2] 有何不同？ [Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor industry, particularly recommending leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye for short-term and mid-term investment opportunities [1][2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with a focus on rationality among enterprises and continuous clearing of financial statements. Guizhou Moutai is leading reforms, while Wuliangye is maintaining price stability through supply management [1][2]. - The report highlights a dual focus on recovery and growth in the consumer goods sector, emphasizing health-oriented product upgrades and channel transformations to explore incremental growth [1][6]. - The spring liquor fair in 2026 showed a subdued performance, with fewer participating companies and a trend towards digitalization and new consumer engagement strategies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The spring liquor fair indicated a continued structural differentiation in demand, with a notable increase in brand concentration and resilience in high-end pricing [2]. - Guizhou Moutai's price stabilized around 1600 yuan post-Spring Festival, while new product launches and digital retail channels are gaining traction [2][3]. - Wuliangye's core product saw double-digit growth in sales, reflecting strong brand resilience and effective marketing strategies [3]. Consumer Goods - The focus on health and functional upgrades in products is evident, with new product launches in low-sugar and health-oriented categories [6][8]. - Companies like汤臣倍健 are targeting double-digit revenue growth by enhancing online channels and expanding product categories [6]. - The report notes that the snack and beverage sectors are seeing significant growth opportunities, driven by health trends and innovative marketing strategies [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sales growth has accelerated, with a focus on feedback from the Spring Sugar Festival. The report suggests that the overall rhythm of the liquor industry is expected to improve on a month-on-month basis, with key recommendations including leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and others focusing on supply clearance [1][2] - The beer sector is witnessing a recovery, with a notable increase in beer production and the launch of new products, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3] - The food sector shows a recovery in retail sales, particularly in the restaurant segment, which is expected to drive opportunities in related supply chains [4][7] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, while Shide Jiuye reported a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Kweichow Moutai leading the recovery through reforms [2] - Jinhuijiu's product structure upgrade is notable, with high-end products (above 300 yuan) increasing by 25.21% year-on-year, while low-end products (below 100 yuan) decreased by 36.88% [2] Beer and Beverage Sector - In the beer segment, the cumulative production of major enterprises reached 5.797 million kiloliters in January-February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The launch of the new Yanjing A10 product is expected to enhance market presence [3] - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies launching new products to capture market share. Notable new releases include flavored waters and teas targeting specific consumer scenarios [3] Food Sector - Retail sales in the food sector increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with restaurant income growing by 4.8%. This growth is attributed to the recovery of consumer spending and seasonal factors [4][7] - Wanchen Group reported a record high net profit margin of 5.7% in Q4 2025, indicating strong profitability and market expansion potential [7]

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The demand side is experiencing a mild recovery, with notable trends in chain operations and online services. Supply-side enterprises are actively transforming, driving category and channel innovation, and capital expenditures are generally contracting, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [2][19] - The frozen and prepared food sectors are becoming increasingly standardized and are benefiting from the trend towards restaurant chain operations. Key companies to watch include Anjuke Foods and Qianwei Central Kitchen [2] - The seasoning industry is stabilizing with basic seasonings providing a foundation, while clean label trends are emerging. Compound seasonings are convenient and cater to consumers with less cooking experience, with chain restaurants demanding standardization and specialization. Recommended companies include Haitian Flavor Industry, Qianhe Flavor Industry, Yihai International, and Baoli Foods [2] - The baking industry is expected to gradually shift towards retail channels and cross-industry restaurant channels, with a focus on companies like Lihigh Foods that can capitalize on these channel changes [2] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Trends - The restaurant sector is showing signs of mild recovery, with monthly year-on-year growth rates fluctuating between 0.9% and 6.9% post-pandemic. The total revenue for the restaurant sector is projected to grow from 3.23 trillion to 5.80 trillion yuan from 2015 to 2025, with a CAGR of 6.02% [19][20] - The chain operation rate in the restaurant sector is increasing, from 15% in 2020 to an expected 25% in 2025. The penetration rate of takeaway services has also risen significantly, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [30][31] 2. Supply-Side Transformation - Capital expenditures in the food processing and seasoning sectors have contracted in recent years, with significant declines noted in 1H25. For instance, capital expenditures in the seasoning sector dropped by 24% year-on-year [41][46] - Supply chain companies are evolving from mere supporters to co-creators and drivers, necessitating proactive consumer demand exploration and product innovation [19][41] 3. Industry Segmentation - The frozen food sector is the second largest globally, but per capita consumption in China remains low compared to other countries. The industry is characterized by low concentration [19] - The prepared food sector is becoming more standardized, enhancing food safety and health standards [19] - The seasoning sector is seeing a rise in compound seasonings, with clean label soy sauce emerging as a new market segment [19] - The baking industry is witnessing a shift towards short-shelf-life products in retail and cross-industry channels [19]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% in February 2026, marking the highest growth since January 2023. This recovery is expected to benefit companies with strong pricing power in the food and beverage sector [2][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that can effectively pass on costs to consumers, particularly in the condiment and restaurant supply chain sectors, as the industry transitions from a cost dividend phase to an initial stage of price increases [3][40] Summary by Sections CPI and Economic Recovery - The CPI has rebounded, indicating a shift towards moderate inflation, with the government targeting a CPI growth of around 2% for 2026. This is supported by fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price increases [6][15] - The service sector has become a key driver of growth, with significant increases in service prices contributing to the overall CPI rise [20][23] CPI-PPI Dynamics - The report discusses the narrowing of the CPI-PPI (Producer Price Index) gap, which is currently at 2.2 percentage points. This gap indicates that consumer prices are rising faster than production costs, benefiting companies with strong pricing power [28][30] - The report notes that the PPI has shown signs of improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in February 2026, suggesting a stabilization in raw material prices [27][29] Cost Transmission and Pricing Power - The report identifies key raw materials that constitute 65%-85% of the operating costs for leading companies in the food and beverage sector, including soybeans, sugar, and dairy products. The ability to manage these costs effectively will be crucial for maintaining profitability [41][44] - Companies in the condiment and restaurant supply chain are highlighted as having strong pricing power, with expectations for a new round of price increases due to rising costs and improved demand conditions [3][40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong channel and product capabilities, clear price increase expectations, and high dividend attributes, such as Haidilao, Anjoy Foods, and Mengniu Dairy [3][40] - It also suggests investing in leading beer companies and high-growth regional leaders, as well as companies in the dairy and snack sectors that possess category and channel advantages [3][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting strategic opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes two major directions for investment: the focus on health food due to the increase in life expectancy and the encouragement of new business models and channels [5][6]. - The anticipated increase in average life expectancy to 80 years by 2030 is expected to shift health management from a disease-centered approach to a health-centered one, creating new demand for health foods [8][9]. - The report identifies community-oriented value-for-money formats and new retail supermarkets as key areas for growth, with companies like Mingming Hen Mang and Guoquan expanding their store numbers [12][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: "14th Five-Year Plan" Focus on Consumption - The report outlines the goal of increasing average life expectancy and the shift towards proactive health management, which is expected to drive demand for health foods [8]. - It highlights the emergence of personalized health food demands, including emotional relief, weight management, and sleep management, as well as the trend towards lighter food forms like snack bars and grain powders [9]. Section 2: Encouragement of New Business Models - The report discusses the encouragement of high-quality development in wholesale and retail, as well as the expansion of community-based services and convenience living circles [11]. - It notes the rapid expansion of community-oriented value-for-money formats and new retail supermarkets, which are expected to continue thriving [12]. - The report also mentions the potential benefits for upstream supply chain companies due to category expansion and the development of private label products by downstream stores [12]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality health food categories that are expected to experience structural growth, as well as efficient and high-experience downstream channels that will continue to thrive [6]. - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and various others in both upstream and downstream sectors [16].

本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 上海宝立食品科技股份有限公司 持股 5%以上股东减持计划时间届满暨减持股份结果 公告 证券代码：603170 证券简称：宝立食品 公告编号：2026-005 重要内容提示： 持股 5%以上股东的基本情况 本次减持计划实施前，持股 5%以上股东上海厚旭资产管理有限公司（以下 简称"上海厚旭"）持有上海宝立食品科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 股份 25,007,520 股，占公司总股本的 6.25%。上述均为公司 IPO 前取得的股份， 已于 2023 年 7 月 31 日上市流通。 减持计划的实施结果情况 公司于 2025 年 11 月 18 日披露《持股 5%以上股东减持股份计划公告》（公 告编号：2025-039），公司股东上海厚旭拟通过集中竞价交易和大宗交易方式减 持公司股份合计不超过 12,000,300 股，即不超过公司总股本的 3%。减持期间为 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 2026 年 3 月 9 日。 公司于近日收到上海厚旭发来的《股份减持计划 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baoli Food is positioned as a market leader in the B-end sector, with stable demand driven by the expansion of core customer stores and partnerships with major companies like Yum China, McDonald's, and Heytea [1] Group 1: B-end Business Development - The expansion of core customer stores in the B-end is expected to bring stable demand [1] - Baoli Food is continuously expanding its partnerships beyond Yum China, collaborating closely with McDonald's and Heytea [1] Group 2: C-end Product and Brand Strategy - The introduction of new products under the "Kongke" brand, along with effective online brand promotion and offline channel expansion, is contributing to incremental growth [1] Group 3: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from dual advantages of increased industry penetration and restaurant recovery, leveraging its B-end partnerships and C-end brand strengths for sustained growth [1] - Baoli Food's strategy includes external mergers and acquisitions to further expand its scale and solidify its industry position [1] Group 4: Financial Projections - Projected net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 are estimated at 262 million, 300 million, and 343 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +12.44%, +14.30%, and +14.46% respectively [1] - Given its leading position in the industry and stable business growth, the company is rated as a "buy" for initial coverage [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - Baoli Foods has established itself as a leader in the Western compound seasoning industry, evolving from single product offerings to comprehensive solutions over its 20-year history [15][16]. - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a projected CAGR of 14.09% from 2022 to 2024, and a net profit of 1.92 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.59% [1][15]. - The compound seasoning market is expected to grow from 99.7 billion yuan in 2020 to 126.5 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 6.1% [2]. Company Overview - Baoli Foods operates three main business segments: compound seasonings, light cooking solutions, and beverage dessert ingredients, serving both B-end and C-end markets [15]. - The company has a stable management team with extensive industry experience, which supports strategic execution and innovation [26][29]. - The financial performance indicates a robust growth trajectory, with revenue expected to reach 2.998 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 13.1% [10]. Industry Analysis - The compound seasoning market is characterized by strong demand from both enterprise and individual customers, with enterprise customer revenue projected to grow from 58.8 billion yuan to 73.1 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, and individual customer revenue expected to increase from 40.9 billion yuan to 53.4 billion yuan [2]. - The restaurant service market in China is projected to reach 5.6 trillion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 8.78% from 2020 to 2024, driven by the growth of chain restaurants and the takeout market [3]. - The C-end market for pre-prepared meals is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to increase from 171.2 billion yuan in 2019 to 485 billion yuan by 2024, achieving a CAGR of 23.15% [4].