华鑫证券：给予煌上煌买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Securities recently published a research report on Huangshanghuang (002695), highlighting a recovery in profit margins and improved operational performance, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the total operating revenue was 1.739 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, primarily due to increased pressure at the store level. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 40 million yuan, down 43% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 41 million yuan, down 16% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, total operating revenue was 287 million yuan, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 38 million yuan compared to a loss of 30 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 446 million yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 36% to 44 million yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items rose by 48% to 39 million yuan [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 32.76% and 35.21%, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, attributed to a decline in the procurement prices of duck by-products. The company has made strategic reserves to smooth out raw material costs, leading to a continuous release of gross margin benefits [2] - The selling expense ratio increased by 2 percentage points in 2024 to 16.80% but decreased by 3 percentage points in Q1 2025 to 10.88%. The management expense ratio also saw an increase of 2 percentage points in 2024 to 10.36% and a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in Q1 2025 to 9.22%, indicating effective cost control [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 2.17%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it improved by 3 percentage points to 9.81% [2] Business Challenges and Strategic Initiatives - The revenue from the main products, including fresh goods, packaged products, and rice products, faced pressure, with revenues of 1.209 billion yuan, 49 million yuan, and 351 million yuan, respectively, all showing year-on-year declines of 14%, 10%, and 2%. This was influenced by store closures [3] - As of the end of 2024, the company had 3,660 specialty stores, a net decrease of 837 stores from the beginning of the year. The company is facing increased pressure to close stores due to weak external demand and is focusing on brand rejuvenation and digital upgrades to improve operational capabilities [3] Future Outlook - The company experienced a loss of 16.17 million yuan due to a warehouse fire at a subsidiary in 2024, along with a goodwill impairment of 10.75 million yuan affecting net profit. However, the company is stabilizing its store closures and optimizing single-store operations, with expectations for gradual recovery in business performance [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.14 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.21 yuan, respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 71, 57, and 48 times [4]