Goheal：高估值+政策风险，上市公司资本运作正在悄悄“转向”？

Group 1 - The capital market is undergoing a structural transformation, influenced by high valuation pressures and increasing policy risks, leading to a shift in capital operation logic [1][4] - The focus has shifted from mere growth rates and price-to-earnings ratios to a more complex and politically aware approach to capital investment [4][8] - The new "National Nine Articles" emphasizes focusing on core business, marking a significant change in capital operation strategies, with 78% of mergers in the tech sector in the first half of 2024 centered on vertical integration, a 42 percentage point increase from 2021 [5][6] Group 2 - The narrowing of policy arbitrage windows has led to a more stringent regulatory environment, particularly affecting light-asset technology companies, with a 35% failure rate in performance guarantees in the energy storage sector [7][8] - Capital is transitioning from a focus on rapid growth to a focus on stability, with companies needing to adapt their valuation strategies accordingly [8][10] - The integration of technology and policy into valuation models is becoming essential, as seen in the case of a company using its AI chip development as a basis for capital raising, achieving three times the traditional equity financing amount [9][10] Group 3 - Risk management is becoming a central theme in capital operations, with companies increasingly adopting multi-layered risk buffers and compliance costs being capitalized [11][12] - The evolution of capital operations is moving beyond simple valuation discussions to include compliance and risk assessment as primary considerations [12][13] - Companies are now focusing on a triad of technology content, policy friendliness, and risk hedging in their strategic planning, moving away from traditional scale-oriented models [13][14] Group 4 - The capital market dynamics are shifting from a focus on who acts first to who can sustain their position, emphasizing the importance of understanding regulatory rhythms and quantifying technological progress [15][16] - The awareness of the changing rules of capital operation is not uniform, with some companies still relying on outdated strategies while others are innovating with technology-driven financing solutions [16][18] - The next challenge for companies will be to construct a coherent valuation system amidst policy uncertainties and technological cycles [18]