“海湖庄园协议”实锤？韩国与美国讨论了外汇政策！

Core Viewpoint - The discussions between the U.S. and South Korean governments regarding foreign exchange policy have raised market speculation about the Trump administration's potential acceptance of a weaker dollar, with currency issues expected to play a role in upcoming trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the news of the discussions, the dollar experienced a decline, with the USD/KRW exchange rate dropping nearly 2% to a one-week low, while the Korean won appreciated approximately 5% against the dollar this year [1][3]. - Concerns have emerged that the Trump administration may favor a weaker dollar, which could lead foreign governments to accept stronger local currencies to facilitate trade agreements with the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Danske Bank expressed that the news from the U.S.-Korea talks reinforces market fears regarding a potential weak dollar stance from the Trump administration [3]. - Bloomberg macro strategist noted that if the U.S. government shifts focus from trade to currency, the current consolidation of the dollar may be threatened, raising concerns about policies that could lead to dollar sell-offs [3]. Group 3: Historical Context - South Korea, along with Japan and other regional countries, was placed on the U.S. Treasury's foreign exchange operations "monitoring list" in November last year, indicating ongoing scrutiny of currency practices [4]. - In late 2024, South Korea's purchase of won to prevent its appreciation against the weakening dollar was briefly impacted by emergency measures implemented by then-President Yoon Suk-yeol, which led to asset sell-offs in South Korea [4].