Tech Stocks - Focus On What Management Isn't Talking About

Core Viewpoint - The tech sector is experiencing significant volatility due to ongoing tariff discussions and market uncertainties, particularly affecting companies like Nvidia and AMD [4][5][6]. Tariff Impact on Tech Companies - The U.S. administration has granted exclusions for certain tech components from tariffs, indicating a recognition of the tech supply chain's complexities [7][9]. - Nvidia and AMD have reported substantial write-offs due to tariff-related issues, with Nvidia writing off $5.5 billion and AMD $800 million [11][16]. Nvidia's Market Position and Risks - Nvidia holds a dominant position in the AI server market, estimated to control 70% to 95% of the market share, with expectations of significant revenue growth [18][19]. - Despite recent stock rallies, concerns remain about Nvidia's ability to sustain growth, particularly with potential lower guidance for the July quarter due to double ordering and inventory issues [22][27][28]. AMD's Performance and Outlook - AMD was downgraded earlier in the year but has since been upgraded following a lack of AI GPU sales guidance, indicating a reset in Wall Street's expectations [90][92]. - The company may benefit from increased CPU sales, offsetting potential weaknesses in AI GPU growth [93]. Other Companies of Interest - CoreWeave is showing promise post-IPO, with expectations for strong pipeline growth and potential partnerships, particularly with Microsoft [62][66]. - Palantir's recent earnings report was met with a negative market reaction despite good numbers, indicating that the stock is priced for perfection [70][71]. - Super Micro has faced challenges with lowered guidance and potential issues related to smuggling Nvidia GPUs into China, impacting its customer base [84][89]. Broader Market Trends - The semiconductor industry, particularly companies like Micron and Broadcom, is expected to see continued demand despite tariff uncertainties, driven by the need for advanced technology [56][58][99]. - The overall sentiment in the tech sector is cautious, with investors advised to focus on companies with solid fundamentals amidst market volatility [96].