评论丨如何把握美国通胀当前走势？

Core Insights - The April CPI data released by the U.S. Labor Department shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating a decline compared to February [1] - Year-on-year CPI growth is at 2.3%, the lowest level since February 2021, and core CPI growth is at 2.8%, matching expectations and previous values [1] - The overall inflation data is considered mild, but market expectations suggest inflation may rise due to U.S. trade policies [1] Inflation Components - Core goods prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with new car prices unchanged and used car prices down by 0.5% [2] - Furniture and bedding prices rose from 0.6% to 1.5%, while appliance, toy, and sports equipment prices saw increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [2] - Service inflation continues to decline, with housing inflation up by 0.3%, indicating persistent but stable housing inflation [2] Service Inflation Trends - Core service inflation excluding housing is at 3.01%, the lowest since December 2021, with healthcare and transportation services showing slight increases [3] - The labor market cooling and slowing wage growth are expected to contribute to a gradual decline in service inflation [3] - The stability of supply chains has reduced the risk of disruptions, allowing businesses to adjust and mitigate price increases [3] Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Companies are reducing travel expenses, and consumers are cutting back on leisure spending, leading to a decrease in prices for flights and hotels [4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in oil production, contributing to a continued decline in oil prices, which may offset inflationary pressures from tariffs [4] - The combined effects of reduced travel spending, falling oil prices, and slowing wage growth could counterbalance the inflation impact from tariffs [4]