曾看好特朗普削减赤字，市场老兵“很沮丧”：或许只有来一场债券崩盘了

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. may need a significant bond market crash to compel the government to address its deficit issues, as warned by market veteran Stephen Jen [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. deficit has been exceptionally high, exceeding 6% of GDP over the past two years, with a projected 6.4% for fiscal year 2024, up from 6.2% in 2023 [2]. - The Trump administration is pushing for a large tax cut plan, which is expected to increase the national debt burden by at least $3.3 trillion and raise the annual deficit to over 7% of GDP by 2034 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Concerns over the escalating U.S. debt burden due to the tax cut plan have led to rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield approaching 5% [3]. Group 3: Historical Reference - Jen draws parallels to the UK’s Truss government, which faced a bond market crash after attempting to implement a large tax cut without spending cuts, resulting in a rapid increase in bond yields by over 150 basis points [1].