Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 14, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1,030 USD/ton, with no change [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 12,650 yuan/ton, up by 500 yuan [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2,270 yuan, an increase of 350 yuan [1] - The basis is 270 yuan, up by 325 yuan [1] Production and Operating Rates - In April, China's butadiene production was 443,100 tons, a decrease of 3.8% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 121,500 tons, down by 5.2% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 55.39 million units, a decrease of 7.2% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.77% [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 13.08 million units, down by 4.5% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% [2] - As of May 8, the operating rate of the butadiene industry was 69.4%, an increase of 0.7% [2] - The operating rate of high-styrene butadiene rubber was 74.7%, an increase of 4% [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 46.7%, a decrease of 30% [2] - The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 41.7%, a decrease of 30% [2] Inventory Levels - As of May 14, the port inventory of butadiene was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons [3] - The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, down by 1,000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% [3] - The inventory of traders was 5,470 tons, down by 430 tons, a decrease of 7.3% [3] Market Insights - As of May 14, the inventory of butadiene at East China ports was approximately 30,870 tons, significantly down by 6,030 tons [4] - Recent shipments to ports have been limited, and downstream raw material inventories are being consumed normally, leading to a significant decrease in port inventories [4] - By May 14, 2025, the inventory of high-styrene butadiene rubber in sample enterprises was 32,100 tons, down by 1,400 tons, a decrease of 4.26% [4] - The price of butadiene continues to rise due to strong demand and unexpected supply-side maintenance, while production costs for styrene-butadiene rubber have surged [4] - The easing of US-China tariff issues has positively impacted the market, although challenges remain for the automotive and parts sectors [4] Analysis - On May 14, Hengli Petrochemical's butadiene unit underwent temporary maintenance, leading to a significant increase in BR prices, with the main contract BR2506 closing at 12,580 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.7% [5] - The butadiene market is currently experiencing strong supply-demand dynamics, with high downstream operating rates and rising supplier prices [5] - Despite the short-term strength in costs, medium-term upward drivers appear limited due to increased supply of styrene-butadiene rubber and potential demand declines from the automotive sector [5] - The natural rubber market is under pressure due to delayed harvesting in Thailand, while domestic production is progressing smoothly [5] Operational Recommendations - It is suggested to adopt a low-price strategy for BR2507-BR2509 [6] - The short-term outlook indicates a strong market trend [6]
合成橡胶:丁二烯装置临时停车 BR延续大幅上涨