博汇纸业(600966)：盈利环比上行 期待内需修复

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a slight increase in total revenue for 2024, but net profit showed a decline, indicating mixed performance in the financial results [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3% to 176 million yuan [1] - For Q4 2024, total revenue was 496.3 million yuan, reflecting a 1% decrease year-on-year, with net profit dropping significantly by 90% to 2.7 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 456.4 million yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, but net profit fell by 47% to 53 million yuan [1] Sales and Pricing Dynamics - The total sales volume for 2024 was 4.56 million tons, a 6% increase, while the average gross profit per ton decreased by approximately 69 yuan [2] - The average selling price for white paperboard decreased by 7% to 3987 yuan per ton, with a corresponding gross profit drop of 93 yuan per ton [2] - Cultural paper sales increased by 11.7% to 474.1 million yuan, with a sales volume increase of 16% [2] Profitability Analysis - Q4 2024 saw a significant improvement in operating net profit, primarily due to a rebound in paper prices and ongoing cost control [3] - The profitability of cultural paper improved, while boxboard paper continued to incur losses but at a reduced rate [3] - The company expects further improvement in profitability for Q1 2025, driven by rising prices for white card paper and reduced losses in black paper [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in production and sales, with overseas sales revenue significantly increasing to 16% of total sales, mitigating domestic market fluctuations [4] - The company plans to continue developing differentiated products and implementing digital transformation initiatives to enhance operational efficiency [4] - Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders are 300 million yuan in 2025, 430 million yuan in 2026, and 520 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 14, and 12 [4]