证 券 研 究 报 告 HALO资产属性，供需曙光初现，浆纸一体为王 2026年造纸行业春季投资策略 证券分析师：屠亦婷 A0230512080003 黄莎 A0230522010002 张海涛 A0230524080003 2026.03.31 投资逻辑：供需改善曙光初现，浆纸一体企业持续整合市场 ◼ 造纸行业具备HALO资产属性，重资产、低淘汰率、长期价值稳定；供给政策驱动下（反内卷、碳双控等），有望加速周期弹性释放 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 • 2030年碳达峰在即，十五五启动进入碳双控，正式实施碳排放总量和强度双控制度，替代原有能耗双控；2026年生态环境部《关于做好2026年 全国碳排放权交易市场有关工作的通知》特别明确了石化、化工、建材（平板玻璃）、有色（铜冶炼）、造纸、民航行业企业管理要求，后续若 碳排放政策在造纸行业落地，有望加速中小产能出清和行业供需改善 ◼ 木浆：海外浆厂协同性强、控产意愿强烈，叠加新增供给有所放缓，2025H2以来阔叶浆价逐渐企稳回升，短期重点关注高成本针叶浆厂 的供给变化、终端需求复苏节奏和库存去化情况；中长期浆价易涨难跌，浆纸一体化企业 ...

主要观点： 报告日期： 2026-03-29 ⚫周专题：浆企陆续发布停机检修或减产计划，纸厂继续发布涨价函 ⚫ [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 国内外浆企陆续发布停机检修或减产计划，全球木浆供应呈现收紧态 势，为纸浆价格上涨提供了坚实支撑。3 月 11 日，亚太森博发布停机 检修通知，位于山东日照的浆线（190 万吨/年）计划从 4 月 20 日开始 为期 10 天的水洗停机检修。受原材料、能源以及运输成本上涨影响， 此前已将阔叶浆价格上调 150 元。全球其他浆企也在通过主动减产、转 产或计划内检修来调节供应。3 月中旬以来，针叶浆和阔叶浆均价均上 涨，在 3 月 24 日均价分别为 5185.58 元/吨和 4572.89 元每吨。全球木 浆供应边际收紧，海外浆厂目前提价意愿强烈。 [Table_IndNameRptType] 轻工纺服 行业周报 浆企陆续发布停机检修或减产计划，纸厂继续发布涨价函 行业[Table_IndRank] 评级：增 持 [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com -10% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing and paper industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies with high dividend yields such as Kuka Home, Sophia, and Oppein [2][4]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the release of smart furniture products, with major players like Kuka Home and Mousse launching innovative products that align with AI trends [2][4]. - The valuation of the home furnishing sector is at a low point, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation adjustments, leading to accelerated industry consolidation [2][4]. - The paper industry is witnessing a recovery in pulp and paper prices, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics that could enhance industry profitability [2][4]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes a significant release of smart home products, which is driving a new demand paradigm. Companies like Kuka Home and Mousse are launching innovative products that stimulate replacement demand [2][4]. - The sector's valuation is at a bottom, with real estate policies likely to boost valuations. The report emphasizes the importance of companies with high dividend safety margins such as Kuka Home, Sophia, Oppein, Mousse, and Xilinmen [2][4]. - Recent data indicates a recovery in Shanghai's second-hand housing market, which is expected to support home furnishing demand [9][10]. Light Industry - The report identifies high dividend stocks in the light industry, recommending companies like Huawang Technology, Yongxin Co., and Weiyida, which are expected to benefit from stable growth and dividend policies [2][4][13]. - The light industry saw a significant recovery in exports, with a year-on-year increase of 18% in January-February, driven by strong external demand [21][23]. Paper Industry - The report highlights that pulp prices are beginning to recover, with expectations of price increases following a seasonal uptick. The supply-demand balance is anticipated to improve, enhancing profitability in the paper sector [2][4][16]. - Companies like Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, and Bohui Paper are recommended due to their strong cost advantages and integrated operations, which position them well for the expected recovery [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing and paper industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies with high dividend yields and strong market positions [2][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the release of smart furniture products, with companies like Kuka Home, Mousse, and Xilinmen launching innovative products that align with AI trends [2][5]. - The valuation of the home furnishing sector is at a low point, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation adjustments, leading to accelerated industry consolidation [2][5]. - The paper industry is witnessing a recovery in pulp and paper prices, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics that could enhance industry profitability [2][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes a significant release of smart home products, which is expected to stimulate replacement demand. Key players such as Kuka Home and Mousse are launching innovative products that incorporate AI technology [2][5]. - The sector's valuation is at a bottom, with favorable real estate policies likely to boost demand and support industry consolidation. Recent policy changes in Shanghai have improved the housing market, which is expected to positively impact home furnishing demand [2][5][10]. Light Industry - The report identifies high-dividend stocks in the light industry, recommending companies like Huawang Technology and Yongxin Co., which are expected to benefit from stable growth and dividend policies [2][14]. - The light industry is experiencing significant recovery in exports, with a year-on-year increase of 18% in early 2026, driven by strong external demand and favorable market conditions [22][24]. Paper Industry - The report highlights that pulp prices are beginning to recover, with expectations of a price increase following a period of stabilization. The supply-demand balance is anticipated to improve, enhancing profitability for the industry [2][17]. - Specific companies such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are recommended for their integrated operations and cost advantages, which position them well for the expected recovery in the paper market [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The paper industry is a typical pro - cyclical industry, and signs of a reversal at the bottom of the cycle have emerged. The improvement of the macro - economy will drive the demand for paper, and combined with industry factors such as new production capacity and inventory, the paper industry is showing signs of a bottom - cycle reversal. The anti - involution policy will create a bottom for the stock price of the paper sector, and in the future, supply clearance, inventory increase, and demand bottoming are expected to jointly drive an upward cycle [8][16]. - The stock price of the paper sector follows a two - stage evolution, with tonnage profit as the core pricing anchor. The first stage is driven by expectations, and the valuation is mainly based on PB. The second stage is driven by product price increases, and the valuation shifts from PB to PE [27]. - The current paper sector is still in the first stage, and there is still a large room for improvement in tonnage profit. When the tonnage profit reaches around 300 yuan/ton, the enterprise's profitability will move towards a reasonable level, and the stock price will enter an accelerated upward stage [54]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Paper Industry as a Typical Pro - cyclical Industry with Signs of Bottom - Cycle Reversal - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The paper industry is a typical pro - cyclical industry, and its prosperity is positively correlated with the macro - economic trend. Since September 2024, a series of policies and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy have promoted economic recovery, which will drive the demand for paper [8]. - **Inventory Cycle**: In Q3 2025, the paper industry may have entered the passive de - stocking stage, with signs of economic recovery, demand rebound, and an improvement in paper enterprises' profitability [13]. - **Supply - Side Catalysis**: Past paper cycles were all catalyzed by supply - side factors. The anti - involution policy and the possible supply - side clearance due to the shutdown of a large paper enterprise are expected to drive an upward cycle in the paper sector [16]. - **Price Increase Cycle**: Taking white cardboard as an example, the two price increase cycles from 2015 - 2017 and 2019 - 2022 were mainly driven by supply - side factors, such as supply - side structural reform, the acquisition of enterprises, and the implementation of policies like the plastic ban and waste paper ban [18][20]. 3.2 Stock Price of the Sector Follows a Two - Stage Evolution, with Tonnage Profit as the Core Pricing Anchor - **Two - Stage Evolution Logic**: The rise of cyclical stocks usually follows a two - stage evolution. The first stage is driven by expectations of product price reversal, and the valuation is mainly based on PB. The second stage is driven by product price increases, and the valuation shifts from PB to PE [27]. - **Case Studies**: - **White Cardboard - Bohui Paper**: From 2019 - 2022, the correlation coefficients between the daily average price of white cardboard, daily tonnage profit, and Bohui Paper's stock price were 0.78 and 0.75 respectively. The inflection point from stage one to stage two was in May 2020, when the market - fitted tonnage profit exceeded 300 yuan/ton [37]. - **Cultural Paper - Sun Paper**: From 2016 - 2018, the correlation coefficients between the daily price of offset paper, tonnage profit, and Sun Paper's stock price were 0.90 and 0.57 respectively. The inflection point from stage one to stage two was in June 2017, when the market - fitted tonnage profit exceeded 300 yuan/ton [41]. - **Boxboard Paper - Nine Dragons Paper**: From 2016 - 2018, the correlation coefficients between the daily price of boxboard paper, daily tonnage profit, and Nine Dragons Paper's stock price were 0.87 and 0.63 respectively. The inflection point from stage one to stage two was in August 2017, when the market - fitted tonnage profit exceeded 500 yuan/ton (the Zhuochuang tonnage profit exceeded 300 yuan/ton) [44]. 3.3 The Current Sector is Still in the First Stage, and There is Still a Large Room for Improvement in Tonnage Profit - **Tonnage Profit Calculation**: As of March 6, 2026, the tonnage gross profits of white cardboard, offset paper, and boxboard paper were - 332, - 576, and 485 yuan/ton respectively. The tonnage net profits of offset paper, boxboard paper, and white cardboard were - 700, - 834, and 200 yuan/ton respectively. White cardboard and offset paper are still in the first stage of tonnage profit improvement, while boxboard paper may be transitioning from the first stage to the second stage [55]. - **Reasonable Tonnage Profit Level**: The reasonable tonnage profit inflection point for white cardboard, cultural paper, and boxboard paper companies to transition from the first stage to the second stage is around 300 yuan/ton. When the paper price exceeds market expectations and the subsequent increase in paper price is higher than that of raw materials, the tonnage profit will increase rapidly, and the enterprise's profitability will be greatly enhanced [54]. 3.4 Company - Specific Analysis - **Bohui Paper**: - **Solving the Problem of Competing Business**: Jinguang Paper will solve the problem of competing business with Bohui Paper by September 2026. If the integration is achieved, Bohui Paper's profitability is expected to be significantly improved [64]. - **Capacity Expansion**: The company plans to add new production capacities, including 100,000 tons of high - grade packaging cardboard (under construction in Yancheng, Jiangsu), 150,000 tons of high - grade packaging cardboard (expected to be completed in 2029 in Zibo, Shandong), 80,000 tons of high - grade special cardboard (expected to be completed in 2026), and 32,000 tons of chemical pulp (expansion), which are expected to contribute to the company's performance [68]. - **Sun Paper**: - **Capacity Expansion and Profitability**: As of 2024, the company's total paper and pulp production capacity exceeded 12 million tons. From 2012 - 2023, the company's paper and pulp production capacity increased from 2.25 million tons to 12.25 million tons, with a CAGR of 16.66%. The company's performance growth is in line with the capacity expansion, and the profit growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate [70]. - **Overseas Layout**: The company strategically expanded overseas to Laos in 2008 to implement the "forest - pulp - paper integration" project. The Laos base currently has a production capacity of 1.5 million tons of pulp and paper, and the company's self - owned forest land advantage will gradually be realized [76]. - **Nine Dragons Paper**: - **Product Expansion**: The company is a leading enterprise in the packaging paper industry and has successfully expanded to high - value - added paper types such as high - end kraft paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard. As of December 31, 2025, the company's total designed annual production capacity of packaging cardboard, cultural paper, high - value special paper, and pulp products was about 31.5 million tons [77]. - **Pulp - Paper Integration**: The company has completed the construction of the core of the pulp - paper integration strategy. By building an independent and controllable raw material supply system, the company can hedge against the price fluctuation risk of purchased wood pulp and promote the upgrading of product structure. After all new projects are put into production, the group's total designed annual production capacity of fiber raw materials is expected to reach about 10.7 million tons [81].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper sector, anticipating performance improvements in 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an acceleration in industry consolidation, with leading companies demonstrating resilience and a wait for demand recovery in 2026 [2][3]. - It predicts that the paper prices will continue to rise due to cost-driven factors, increased demand, and alleviated supply pressures, leading to improved profitability in Q4 2025 [4]. - The packaging and printing sector is expected to see a rise in profitability for leading companies, while some may experience declines due to optimization and potential impairments [4][9]. - The export sector shows a mixed performance, with companies having global supply chain advantages expected to maintain steady growth [4][12]. - The home furnishing sector is under pressure from policy changes, with soft furniture performing better than custom furniture [4][14]. - The light consumer goods sector is facing overall demand pressure, but individual companies are showing structural highlights [4][16]. Summary by Sections Paper Industry - The report forecasts improved profitability for companies like Sun Paper and BoHui Paper in Q4 2025, with expected net profits of 7.58 billion and 1.11 billion respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [6][8]. - Companies like ShanYing International are expected to incur losses, with a projected net profit of -6.50 billion [8]. Packaging and Printing - YuTong Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.23 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [9][10]. - Companies like HeXing Packaging are projected to face losses, with a net profit of -0.25 billion [10]. Export Sector - Co-Creation Turf is expected to see a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year, reaching 8.59 billion, with a net profit of 1.64 billion [12][13]. - Companies like JiaYi Co. are projected to experience a decline in profits, with a net profit of 1.43 billion, down 29% year-on-year [12][13]. Home Furnishing - Companies like Gujia Home are expected to see a revenue of 48.62 billion in Q4 2025, with a net profit of 3.18 billion, reflecting a significant increase [14][15]. - Companies like Oppein Home are projected to face a 20% decline in net profit, estimated at 4.55 billion [15][17]. Light Consumer Goods - Companies like Guangbo are expected to achieve a net profit of 0.52 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [16][19]. - Companies like Bull Group are projected to see a decline in net profit, estimated at 9.58 billion, down 5% year-on-year [19][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with corrugated paper prices rising by 70 CNY/ton and white cardboard prices slightly increasing by 3 CNY/ton. Major paper companies are collaborating to raise prices, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [2][5] - The inventory of pulp has increased to 154,300 tons, with a closing price of 5,260 CNY/ton, which supports cost stability for paper companies [2][11] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower the import costs of pulp, contributing to an improvement in industry conditions. The operating rates of paper companies are recovering, and inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the industry [2][4] - The current phase is critical for profitability recovery, suggesting a focus on "price elasticity and cost benefits" for investment strategies. Short-term tracking of price increases for white cardboard and white board paper is recommended, along with monitoring the recovery of demand [2][27] Summary by Sections Industry News - The paper industry is showing signs of recovery, with companies issuing price increase notices and a heightened focus from institutions. However, demand remains under pressure, making it difficult to predict a full industry turnaround [3] - In January and February, major price increases were announced for white cardboard and household paper, with a unified increase of 200 CNY/ton for white cardboard and 100 CNY/ton for household paper, effective from March 1 [3][5] Price Trends - The recent price increase cycle in the paper industry has seen major companies raise prices across various product categories, with increases ranging from 50 CNY/ton to 300 CNY/ton [5][9] - The price of white cardboard is currently around 4,560 CNY/ton, while the price of corrugated paper is approximately 3,460 CNY/ton, reflecting a stable market with some upward movement [18] Company Developments - The successful operation of the third plant at Chenming's Zhanjiang base marks a significant step in capacity recovery, with an annual production capacity of 190,000 tons for cultural paper [22] - Wuzhou Special Paper Industry announced a major expansion project in Jiangxi, with an investment of approximately 5.44 billion CNY, aiming to produce high-end information paper and other products [26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the paper, packaging, and home furnishing sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these areas [5][7]. Core Insights - The paper industry is expected to see price recovery and improved supply-demand dynamics, enhancing profitability [5][8]. - The packaging sector remains stable, driven by global supply chain consolidation and high dividend yields [5][12]. - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to catalyze upward valuation adjustments [5][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report highlights three key sectors: paper, packaging, and home furnishing, with expectations of price recovery in paper, stability in packaging, and potential valuation recovery in home furnishing due to supportive real estate policies [7]. 2. Sector-Specific Insights Paper Industry - Pulp prices are showing signs of recovery, with a potential for improved supply-demand dynamics to enhance industry profitability [5][8]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated companies with cost advantages, such as Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, and Bohui Paper, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in boxboard and cultural paper prices [9][10][11]. Packaging Industry - The packaging sector is characterized by stability and consolidation driven by global supply chains, with companies like Yutong Technology, Yongxin Co., and Zijang Enterprises highlighted for their strong dividend yields and growth potential [12][13]. Home Furnishing Industry - The home furnishing sector is positioned for valuation recovery, supported by improving real estate policies and increasing consumer confidence [14][15]. - Companies such as Kuka Home, Sophia, and Oppein are noted for their potential to benefit from these trends, with a focus on high dividend yields and market consolidation [14][17]. 3. Company Updates - JD Industrial reported a revenue of 23.95 billion yuan for FY25, a 17% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in key accounts [15].

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - In February, the price of hardwood pulp decreased, while the prices of cultural paper and white cardboard stabilized, leading to a recovery in profitability. It is expected that the supply of wood pulp will increase, with demand initially decreasing before rising, and the price of white paper gradually transmitting, while the price of black paper is expected to rise [2][3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices of cultural paper remain stable, with profitability recovering. As of February 27, the average market price for 70g hardwood high-white double glue paper was 4725 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and down 12.76% year-on-year [7] - Supply and demand dynamics show a decrease in production and an expansion of supply-demand discrepancies to high levels due to the Spring Festival holiday, with demand dropping more than supply [10] - Profitability has improved as costs have decreased while prices remained stable, with the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper at -9.63%, up 1.54 percentage points month-on-month [18] White Cardboard - Prices are stable, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4269 RMB/ton, up 0.02% month-on-month and down 1.13% year-on-year [20] - The supply-demand gap continues to expand, with production and demand both declining due to the Spring Festival, but the drop in demand was greater than that of supply [22] - Profitability has increased, with the gross margin for white cardboard at 9.11%, up 1.11 percentage points month-on-month due to a decrease in raw material costs [31] Boxboard and Corrugated Paper - Prices for boxboard have increased, with the average market price at 3532 RMB/ton, down 1.29% month-on-month and down 5.73% year-on-year [32] - The supply-demand gap has increased, with supply pressure being low due to unexpected production halts during the Spring Festival [35] - Profitability has improved, with the gross margin for corrugated paper at 5.24%, up 1.24 percentage points month-on-month, as the price decline was less than the decline in costs [43] Waste Paper - The price of waste paper has decreased, with the average market price for waste yellow board paper at 1515 RMB/ton, down 3.69% month-on-month and up 4.67% year-on-year [45] - The supply of waste paper has increased, leading to a decline in prices, with expectations of a rebound in prices later in the year [47] Wood Chips - Domestic wood chip procurement has decreased, with procurement in Shandong down 43.31% month-on-month and 47.36% year-on-year [51] - Inventory levels for wood chips have also declined significantly [53] Wood Pulp - The market for wood pulp has seen a general decline in prices, with needle pulp performing weakly while foreign hardwood pulp prices have risen [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper, packaging, and home furnishing sectors, indicating potential for recovery and growth in these industries [5][7]. Core Insights - The paper industry is expected to see price stabilization and improvement in profitability due to a favorable supply-demand balance and rising prices for various paper products [5][8]. - The packaging sector is characterized by stability and high dividend yields, with companies like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. showing strong growth potential through strategic acquisitions and market expansion [5][13]. - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with supportive real estate policies likely to catalyze upward valuation adjustments, alongside accelerated industry consolidation [5][16]. Summary by Sections Paper Industry - Pulp and paper prices are showing signs of recovery, with price increases expected post-holiday due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The report highlights the strong production control willingness of overseas pulp mills and the upward trend in hardwood pulp prices [8][10]. - Companies to watch include Sun Paper, which benefits from a diversified product range and cost advantages, and Nine Dragons Paper, which is positioned to gain from the recovery in corrugated paper demand [10][12]. Packaging Industry - The packaging sector is stable, driven by global supply chain dynamics and high dividend yields. Yutong Technology is noted for its strategic acquisitions and strong customer relationships, while Yongxin Co. is recognized for its leadership in plastic flexible packaging [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of Zijiang Enterprise, which is expanding its beverage packaging business and optimizing its product structure [14]. Home Furnishing Industry - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from improving real estate policies, which may enhance consumer confidence and demand. The report identifies key players such as Kuka Home and Sophia, which are well-positioned for valuation recovery [16][19]. - The report notes that the industry is undergoing consolidation, with mid-tier companies exiting the market, allowing leading firms to capture greater market share [19][20]. Company Updates - JD Industrial reported a revenue of 23.95 billion yuan for FY25, a 17% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in key accounts [17]. - The report highlights the strong performance of various home furnishing companies, including Kuka Home and Sophia, which are adapting to market changes and enhancing their retail capabilities [27][30].