东北证券：国产AI玩具崛起 动静结合全年龄段需求爆发

Group 1 - The global toy market is showing signs of fatigue, with traditional toy demand expected to gradually decline, prompting the industry to shift towards smart and AI-driven products to enhance both volume and price [1][2] - The youth population structure is under pressure, leading to a decrease in traditional toy demand, while advancements in AI are driving industry upgrades [1] - The domestic market for AI toys is projected to reach approximately 85 billion yuan by 2030, with penetration rates expected to reach 29% in 2026, 41% in 2028, and 47% in 2030 [1][2] Group 2 - The past five years have seen a rise in trendy toys, with the domestic trendy toy market surpassing 60 billion yuan in 2023, driven by IP collaborations [2] - The penetration rate of trendy toys in China has rapidly increased from 24.50% in 2019 to 65.72% in 2024, largely due to the Z generation's shift towards emotional consumption [2] - AI toys are expected to become the core catalyst in the toy market, with their demand extending across all age groups, surpassing the potential of trendy toys [2] Group 3 - AI interactive dialogue scenarios are anticipated to become the main demand for AI toys, with plush toys being a significant category due to their ability to integrate with IP and enhance emotional interaction [3] - The market share of plush toys is currently about 12%, second only to plastic toys, indicating substantial market potential for AI upgrades [3] - Domestic AI toy manufacturers have advantages in manufacturing costs, R&D cycles, iteration speed, and supply chain completeness, positioning them well to create breakthrough products in the AI toy sector [3]