高地集团：黄金震荡不停，还能重拾涨势吗？

Core Insights - The gold market is currently experiencing significant volatility, but long-term supportive factors for gold prices remain intact [1][10] Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks play a crucial role in the gold market, providing essential support for gold prices. In Q1 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 244 tons, with China continuously increasing its gold reserves [3] - Emerging market countries are driven by various factors such as "de-dollarization," optimizing foreign exchange reserves, and enhancing currency credibility, leading to sustained demand for gold [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Although geopolitical tensions have eased, potential risks persist. Issues such as U.S.-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and India-Pakistan tensions remain uncertain and could escalate [4] - Should geopolitical tensions rise again, market risk aversion will likely increase, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset and driving up its price [4] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy faces concerns of "stagflation," with slowing growth and persistent inflation pressures. Although current inflation data appears moderate, future inflation may rise due to tariff effects and uneven global economic recovery [6] - If inflation increases, real interest rates will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby enhancing its appeal as an inflation hedge [6][7] Group 4: Dollar Trends and Federal Reserve Policy - The relationship between the dollar and gold prices is typically negative. Recently, the dollar index rebounded from 98.35 to 101.97, creating upward pressure on the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [8] - Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy contributes to volatility in the gold market. Divergent statements from Fed officials regarding interest rate hikes and cuts complicate market predictions [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite recent fluctuations in the gold market, core factors supporting gold price increases, such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation uncertainties, remain [10] - Short-term market dynamics, including market sentiment, dollar trends, and Federal Reserve policies, will continue to influence gold prices, leading to high volatility [10]