2025年第二季度经济报告影响全球市场与商业健康的经济和市场因素英文版

Domestic Economy - The U.S. economy is currently influenced by policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, which have raised inflation expectations and created concerns about economic growth [1][18] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in March 2025, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 228,000, indicating a balanced labor market despite ongoing uncertainties [14][19] - Consumer confidence has declined following tariff implementations, with retail sales (excluding vehicles) stabilizing and vehicle sales increasing due to lower interest rates [24][26] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has moderated, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rising by 2.8% year-over-year as of March 2025, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreasing to 2.4% [2][26] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady in January and March 2025, with market expectations for at least three rate cuts by the end of the year [12][14] Financial Markets - The stock market faced pressure, with the S&P 500 index declining by 4.3% in Q1 2025, particularly affecting the technology and biotech sectors due to monetary policy uncertainties [2][17] - In contrast, the bond market performed well, with investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) bonds delivering strong returns, driven by declining interest rates and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][14] International Economic and Policy Linkages - The U.S. dollar exhibited volatility, initially declining due to tariff uncertainties and concerns about economic growth, with investors reassessing risks associated with U.S. policy [3][38] - Global monetary policy remains divergent, with expectations of rate cuts in the U.S. while other regions may follow suit, impacting cross-border capital flows [3][6] Key Sector Outlook - The outlook for economic growth remains uncertain, heavily influenced by the actual impact of tariff policies and the pace of Federal Reserve actions [3][29] - The housing market showed volatility, with a decrease in existing home supply leading to fewer transactions in early 2025, although median home prices continued to rise [29][31] - Business sentiment improved in Q1 2025, with strong manufacturing data in January and February, although a dip was noted in March [32][34]