KVB Prime：房价高企令美联储难以降温？经济学家称就怪特朗普！

Group 1 - The combination of tariffs and immigration policies is creating significant challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, limiting the space for interest rate cuts [1][6] - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a "vicious cycle of supply and demand imbalance," exacerbated by low housing inventory and high material costs due to tariffs [3][4] - The tightening of immigration policies has resulted in a labor shortage of over 300,000 in the construction industry, increasing labor costs and delaying project timelines [3][4] Group 2 - Rising housing costs are contributing to persistent inflation, with the median price of new homes exceeding $430,000, a 42% increase since before the pandemic [4] - Shelter inflation, which includes rent and equivalent rent, has shown a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, contributing over 70% to the core CPI increase [4][5] - The affordability of home purchases has reached historically poor levels, with the average monthly payment for a median-priced home rising to $2,860, a 63% increase since 2020 [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: cutting interest rates could further stimulate rising home prices, while maintaining restrictive rates could increase the risk of an economic downturn [6] - Research indicates that a 1% increase in tariffs could lead to a 0.4% decrease in residential investment and a 0.2% increase in unemployment [6]