四月金融数据怎么看？招商宏观：社融与M2因低基数原因，增速环比明显提升

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April indicates a significant impact on credit due to external factors, with bills becoming a major support for credit growth [2][6]. Group 1: Credit and Loans - New RMB loans in April amounted to 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, falling short of market expectations [7][11]. - The corporate sector showed a more pronounced impact from tariffs, with corporate loans increasing by 610 billion, down from 860 billion year-on-year [8]. - Bills financing accounted for 297.9% of the new credit in April, highlighting its critical role in supporting credit growth [8][13]. Group 2: Deposits - Total RMB deposits decreased by 440 billion in April, with significant changes in the structure, particularly in non-bank financial institutions which saw an increase of 1.57 trillion [12]. - The increase in non-bank financial deposits is attributed to a shift in investment preferences due to volatility in the bond market [12]. Group 3: Social Financing - Social financing increased by 1.16 trillion in April, with a growth rate of 8.7%, marking a significant rise due to a low base effect [13]. - Government bonds played a crucial role, with new issuance reaching 9.76 trillion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.07 trillion [13]. Group 4: Conclusions and Implications - The April data reflects a seasonal decline in credit, exacerbated by tariff impacts, with expectations of a potential decline in growth rates as base effects fade [6][17]. - The central bank is responding by increasing structural relending quotas to stimulate credit demand in the service sector [17].