工业硅：价格波动，库存高位，下游企稳

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing price fluctuations with current prices hovering at the bottom, indicating a price negotiation phase. The supply side shows stable production but with downward price pressure, while demand remains steady with signs of improvement in downstream sectors [1] Supply Side - The current ex-factory prices for industrial silicon in East China are 8900 - 9200 CNY/ton for 553 silicon and 9800 - 10100 CNY/ton for 421 silicon [1] - The main futures contract for industrial silicon (si2506) closed at 8490 CNY, up 2.72%, with a decrease in open interest by 15,774 contracts, totaling 146,500 contracts and a transaction value of 16.036 billion CNY [1] - Production remains stable in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong, but the sentiment among silicon manufacturers is low due to price pressures, with some production in Yunnan being planned [1] Demand Side - The prices for multi-crystalline silicon are stable, with N-type dense material priced at 38 - 40 CNY/kg, N-type granular silicon at 35 - 38 CNY/kg, N-type recycled material at 39 - 43 CNY/kg, and N-type mixed package material at 36 - 38 CNY/kg [1] - The silicon material market is characterized by a strong price support mentality from silicon manufacturers, despite ongoing price declines in downstream sectors [1] - The price of DMC (Dimethyl Carbonate) is stable, with mainstream opening prices ranging from 11,300 - 12,000 CNY/ton, while major manufacturers continue to negotiate prices aggressively [1] Inventory and Market Outlook - As of May 14, the industrial silicon warehouse inventory stands at 66,531 contracts, an increase of 31 contracts, indicating a high overall inventory level [1] - The current oversupply situation in the industrial silicon market is unlikely to change in the short term, but there are signs of improvement in downstream stability, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of silicon prices [1] - Future attention should be paid to macro policies, production conditions of leading companies, and policies in the photovoltaic industry [1]