尿素供需结构或发生变化

Group 1 - The main trading logic in the urea industry for May is the relaxation of export restrictions, with self-discipline quantity expected to be around 2 million tons for the current year ending April 2026 [1] - Domestic urea supply is significantly increasing under the national supply guarantee, with daily production exceeding 200,000 tons, which is 20,000 tons higher year-on-year [1] - The domestic agricultural demand for urea during the summer is substantial, with an estimated usage of 12 million tons concentrated from May to July, averaging 4 million tons per month [1] Group 2 - In the absence of exports, domestic inventory for 2025 is expected to increase by over 6 million tons, which will adequately meet the spring and summer fertilizer demand in 2026 without causing price increases during peak demand [2] - If the 2 million tons export quota is fully utilized, the carryover inventory will decrease, alleviating the oversupply situation domestically [2] - The relaxation of export restrictions is likely to shift the supply-demand balance from oversupply to a tight equilibrium, with a significant probability of the industry entering a state of tight balance again [2]