美债又“崩了”！30年期美债收益率逼近5%

Group 1 - The recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market is different from last month's situation, where the 10-year Treasury yield unexpectedly surged above 4.5% during a time of heightened trade war fears [2] - Current market conditions show a weakening expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the Fed may not cut rates until December, which contributes to rising Treasury yields [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.53%, and the long-term bond ETF TLT hit its lowest point since November 2023, indicating a significant decline in bond prices [2] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" is projected to create a $3.7 trillion deficit over the next decade, raising annual deficits to over 7% of GDP, which could negatively impact Treasury bonds [3] - Domestic institutions have differing views on U.S. Treasuries; while some see risks due to potential debt expansion from tax cuts, others believe the U.S. has sufficient safety mechanisms to mitigate short-term default risks [3][4] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. has never formally defaulted on its sovereign debt, and current conditions suggest that the market may be overestimating debt risks [3][4]