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巨富金业：中美关税协议重击金市，黄金白银技术面交易策略解析
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-15 07:22

Group 1: Spot Gold Fundamentals - The announcement of a significant tariff adjustment agreement between China and the U.S. on May 12, 2025, led to a sharp decline in the spot gold market, with prices dropping nearly $80 to a weekly low of $3245.85 per ounce [2] - Following the agreement, COMEX gold futures fell below the $3200 mark, reaching a one-month low of $3180.70 per ounce, indicating a market reaction to reduced trade risks [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, which diminished gold's safe-haven appeal, as investors shifted their risk appetite towards equities and other risk assets [2] Group 2: Physical Gold vs. Financial Market - There is a noticeable divergence between physical gold and financial markets, with brands like Chow Tai Fook showing less price volatility compared to the financial market, reflecting stable consumer purchasing decisions [3] - In Q1 2025, global gold jewelry consumption decreased by 21% to 380 tons, while investment demand surged by 170%, with China's demand for gold bars and coins reaching 124 tons, marking the second-highest quarterly level in history [3] Group 3: Spot Gold Technical Analysis - The spot gold market in Asia continued to decline, breaking the key support level of $3201.00, with current market quotes around $3185.00 per ounce [4] - Technical analysis suggests a high probability of further price declines, with a trading strategy recommending short positions if prices rebound to the resistance level of $3215.40, with stop-loss set at $3245.40 and take-profit at $3170.00 [4] Group 4: Spot Silver Technical Analysis - The spot silver market also followed expectations, breaking below the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $32.510, reaching the target of $32.110, with current quotes around $32.200 per ounce [6] - Technical indicators suggest a continued likelihood of price declines, with a recommendation to short if prices rebound to the resistance level of $32.510, setting stop-loss at $32.950 and take-profit at $31.950 [6]