阻碍黄金继续上涨的理由：“美元信用崩溃”叙事被打断

Core Viewpoint - The long-term trend for gold prices may still be upward, but short-term momentum has weakened, leading to increased trading divergence [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting Gold Prices - The narrative of "dollar credit collapse" supporting gold prices is being challenged due to the cancellation of 91% of tariffs between China and the U.S. and the suspension of 24% counter-tariffs [1] - The improvement in U.S. fiscal revenue, with tariffs generating $13.5 billion since April 2, is expected to reduce the fiscal deficit rate from 6.2% to 5.8% [14] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not necessarily weaken the dollar, as these cuts are aimed at supporting the economy, potentially enhancing the attractiveness of dollar assets [16] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Market speculation sentiment has shown signs of cooling, with net long positions in gold decreasing and price divergence reaching 11%, close to levels seen during the 2011 bull market [5] - Historical patterns indicate that gold bull markets are often driven by multiple factors, while the onset of bear markets is closely related to a strengthening dollar [8] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Although central bank gold purchases have supported gold prices, they are not sufficient to sustain a prolonged bull market [18] - Historical data suggests that central bank purchases have not consistently led to sustained increases in gold prices, and rising gold reserves may pose risks if prices decline [18]