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金荣中国:现货黄金延续隔夜弱势局面,继续下跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-15 09:41

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, trading around $3133, following a drop of over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3167.94 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, closing at $3177.32 per ounce. This decline was attributed to increased risk appetite due to improved trade sentiment, leading investors to exit the gold market [1] - The US dollar index rebounded, rising 0.08% to 101.04, while US Treasury yields reached a six-week high, with the 10-year yield surpassing the critical 4.5% level at 4.536%. Changes in interest rate expectations have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased to 74%, down from earlier expectations of a potential cut in July [1] Trade Relations - The immediate catalyst for the drop in gold prices was the easing of global trade tensions, with the US and China agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs and pausing tariff imposition for 90 days. This positive news boosted market risk appetite, leading to a rise in major Wall Street indices as investors shifted from safe-haven assets to higher-risk investments. President Trump's comments about potential agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea further bolstered market confidence [2] Geopolitical Risks - Despite the easing trade tensions, geopolitical risks remain. Trade negotiations between the EU and the US are progressing slowly, with significant differences in agreement scope. The EU's trade commissioner has stated that they will not accept an unfair agreement under pressure. The US has imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, threatening to expand the scope of tariffs. The $9.5 trillion trade and investment relationship between the US and EU faces serious challenges, which could potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4] Market Dynamics - The recent adjustment in the gold market reflects both improved risk sentiment and profit-taking by investors following previous gains. The price of gold is likely to remain volatile due to the interplay of trade dynamics, monetary policy, and economic data. Investors should pay attention to the upcoming US April PPI data and retail sales figures, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cut expectations [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold recorded a significant bearish candle, reinforcing a short-term bearish structure. The price tested a one-month low around $3167 before stabilizing, indicating potential further declines. Traders should monitor the support level at $3150, with a risk of dropping to around $3060. In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the price has extended its decline after breaking below $3200, with ongoing tests around the $3130 level [6]