Ge Long Hui·2025-05-15 10:22Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, JD achieved revenue of 301.08 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.76 billion RMB, up 43.4%, with a net profit margin of 4.24%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - JD's Q1 2025 revenue was 3010.82 billion RMB, with 1P revenue at 2423.09 billion RMB (up 16.2%) and 3P revenue at 587.73 billion RMB (up 14.0%) [1] - The retail segment generated revenue of 2638.45 billion RMB, a 16.3% increase, with adjusted operating profit of 128.46 billion RMB and a profit margin of 4.87% [1] - The logistics segment reported revenue of 46.97 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with adjusted operating profit of 1.45 billion RMB and a profit margin of 0.31% [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Policies - National subsidy policies have supported JD's continued growth, with expectations for these policies to persist in 2025, further enhancing offline integration [1] - JD's new food delivery service has made significant progress, with daily order volume surpassing 10 million, indicating strong market penetration compared to competitors [2] - Regulatory bodies are emphasizing compliance and fair competition in the food delivery sector, which may lead to a more rational investment approach in the future [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for JD are 1286.4 billion RMB and 1375.1 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11.01% and 6.90% [3] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are 51.01 billion RMB and 59.28 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of 6.66% and 16.22% [3] - The target price is set at 207.89 HKD, corresponding to a 12x PE for the group in 2025 [3]