供应端扰动支撑盘面上涨，氧化铝要开启逆袭之路？

Core Viewpoint - The recent supply-side adjustments and maintenance in the alumina industry have provided a boost to the market, leading to a rebound in alumina prices, with the main contract surpassing the 3000 yuan mark, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high [2][4]. Supply-Side Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan for high-quality development in the aluminum industry, which includes no new capacity for electrolytic aluminum and alumina in key pollution prevention areas. However, some companies are reportedly circumventing these regulations by launching alumina projects under the guise of "hydroxide alumina" [4]. - Several alumina companies have begun maintenance and production cuts due to increasing losses, leading to a temporary decline in alumina output and supporting price rebounds. Notable production cuts include a major alumina plant in Shanxi and several plants in Shandong and Guizhou, collectively affecting around 300,000 tons of capacity [5][6]. Inventory and Cost Trends - Recent fluctuations in production have led to a decrease in alumina inventory, with total inventory reported at 3.891 million tons, down 55,000 tons from May 1 [7]. - The cost of alumina production is expected to decline due to falling prices of imported bauxite and caustic soda. The weighted average cost of alumina production in China was reported at 3033.4 yuan per ton, down approximately 125 yuan from the previous month [9][11]. Long-Term Outlook - Despite short-term price support from production cuts, the long-term outlook suggests that alumina supply may remain in surplus due to the potential recovery of previously cut capacities and new capacity releases. The industry is projected to add 2.6 million tons of new capacity in May alone [6][11]. - The demand for alumina may face limitations due to a hard cap on electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which is set at 45.5 million tons, restricting significant increases in alumina demand [6]. Market Sentiment - The alumina market is currently experiencing a rebound due to supply-side disruptions and maintenance, but the overall supply-demand balance remains precarious, with potential for continued oversupply in the future. Market participants are advised to monitor capacity release schedules, bauxite price changes, and demand performance closely [11][12].