鲍威尔“认错”：旧框架不再适用，长期低利率时代已结束

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its overall policy framework in response to significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the COVID-19 pandemic [1][2] Group 1: Policy Framework Review - The Federal Reserve's current framework was adopted five years ago and is under review, which is unlikely to affect current interest rate settings [1] - The review process is expected to be completed by August or September, with input from leading policy theorists on potential changes [1] - The higher inflation-adjusted interest rates post-pandemic may render some elements of the current framework less applicable [1][2] Group 2: Inflation Targeting and Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve established a 2% inflation target in 2012, but concerns arose about the ability to stimulate growth in a low global interest rate environment [2] - The framework adopted in 2020 included a "compensatory" strategy allowing for moderate inflation above the 2% target, which is to be reviewed every five years [2] - The economic reopening post-pandemic has led to inflation reaching 6% in November 2021, driven by strong demand and supply chain disruptions, which was not anticipated in the 2020 framework [2][3] Group 3: Public Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The current review aims to address the shortcomings of the 2020 framework, particularly its lack of resilience to broad economic outcomes [3] - The core ideas of the framework, including the 2% inflation target, are likely to be retained, emphasizing the importance of public confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain low and stable inflation [3] - Public belief in the return of inflation rates to pre-pandemic levels is crucial for achieving recent declines in inflation without a significant rise in unemployment [3]