全球财经连线｜风险偏好回升，国际金价承压，市场风向变了吗？

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in gold prices has sparked discussions about future trends, with prices dropping below $3200 per ounce, marking an over 8% decrease from April highs [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price - The rapid increase in gold prices in early April was driven by escalating U.S. tariffs, leading to a "triple hit" on assets, which highlighted a contraction in dollar credit [2] - Market speculation intensified during this period, accumulating price risks, while subsequent economic data from the U.S. indicated a slowdown, delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions on May 12 boosted market risk appetite, prompting a shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further exacerbating gold's price adjustment [2][6] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of inflation rising alongside economic downturns, creating a stagflation scenario [3] - The ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy and the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle are seen as core factors supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [3][5] - The trend of de-globalization and the ongoing expansion of U.S. debt are also contributing to a long-term bull market for gold, as dollar credit continues to contract [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - In April, global gold trading volumes surged, with an average daily trading volume of $441 billion, reflecting a 48% month-over-month increase [4] - Central bank demand remains a critical support factor for gold prices, driven by the diversification of global reserves and the decline in dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [5] - Investment demand for gold is bolstered by insufficient internal growth dynamics in the global economy and the resulting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic instability [5] Group 4: Short-term Investment Strategy - Current sentiment around gold is relatively weak, with potential further declines if prices drop below $3100 per ounce, possibly testing critical support levels around $2950 to $3000 [7] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains bullish, suggesting that recent price adjustments present buying opportunities for investors [7] Group 5: Future Price Projections - Institutions like UBS predict that gold prices could reach $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to $3800 per ounce under favorable conditions [8] - The long-term performance of gold is primarily driven by the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts supporting a bullish outlook for gold [10]