Recursion Pharmaceuticals Plunges 22% in May: How to Play the Stock

Core Viewpoint - Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) has experienced a significant stock decline of 21.6% in May due to weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 results and the discontinuation of key drug candidates [1][2][15] Financial Performance - RXRX reported first-quarter 2025 results where both earnings and revenues missed estimates, leading to a year-to-date stock decline of 36.2%, compared to the industry’s 3.8% decline [1][4] - The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating underperformance in the sector and the S&P 500 [4] Pipeline Developments - The company has discontinued the development of its lead candidates, REC-994 and REC-2282, due to unfavorable efficacy results, and also halted the mid-stage study on REC-3964 [2][3][15] - RXRX is focusing on other candidates, such as REC-4881, which has shown a preliminary median 43% reduction in polyp burden in a phase Ib/II study, with additional data expected in H2 2025 [11] - Other candidates in early-stage development include REC-1245 for solid tumors and REC-617 for advanced solid tumors, with cash reserves of $509 million expected to sustain operations into mid-2027 [12] Strategic Collaborations - RXRX has ongoing collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies like Roche, Bayer, and Sanofi, which could enhance its pipeline and revenue potential [13] - The company recently received $7 million in collaboration revenues from Sanofi following a significant discovery milestone [13] Competitive Landscape - RXRX faces intense competition from other biotech firms and tech-driven drug discovery companies, which may challenge its ability to maintain a competitive edge [14] - The company’s investigational candidates are still in early stages, raising concerns about the timeline for commercialization [15] Valuation Metrics - RXRX is trading at a premium price/book value ratio of 1.88 compared to the industry average of 1.20, although it is below its five-year mean of 3.65 [16] - Loss estimates for 2025 remain constant at $1.34 per share, while 2026 estimates have narrowed from $1.20 to $1.17 [19] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in AI-driven drug discovery, with a strong focus on Precision Oncology and Rare Diseases, which could enhance shareholder value if pipeline candidates are successfully developed [22] - Recent setbacks in the pipeline are viewed as temporary, and the decline in stock price may present an attractive entry point for new investors [23]