鲍威尔最新讲话：未来通胀或更加波动，美国可能进入更频繁的"供应冲击"时期

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is undergoing a reassessment of its policy framework in light of significant economic changes over the past five years, particularly regarding inflation and interest rates [1][3][10]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Fed has experienced a period of soaring inflation, prompting aggressive interest rate hikes, with the current policy rate set between 4.25% and 4.5% [2][11]. - Powell indicated that future inflation may be more volatile, suggesting the U.S. could face more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for both the economy and the central bank [2][11]. - Historically, during economic downturns, the Fed has typically lowered rates by about 500 basis points [2][11]. Group 2: Policy Framework Review - The Fed is revisiting its strategic framework based on lessons learned from the past five years, focusing on improving communication regarding uncertainty and risks [3][14]. - The last comprehensive review of the Fed's policy framework occurred in 2012, establishing a 2% inflation target, which remains a critical focus [5][14]. - The upcoming review aims to ensure the framework remains resilient in the face of diverse economic conditions and developments [14][15]. Group 3: Communication and Transparency - Clear communication is essential for reducing uncertainty and enhancing policy effectiveness, especially during complex economic events [5][15]. - The Fed plans to enhance its communication tools to better convey its understanding of economic uncertainties and the implications for policy [14][15]. - There is a consensus among participants that improvements in communication are necessary, even during stable periods [15].