United Natural Up 18.2% in a Month: Is the Stock Still a Good Buy?

Core Viewpoint - United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) has experienced an 18.2% increase in stock price over the past month, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 index, leading investors to consider whether to hold or take profits [1]. Stock Performance - UNFI closed at $28.41, trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $26.26 and $23.40, indicating strong momentum and positive investor sentiment [2][3]. Growth and Efficiency - The natural and organic segment of UNFI is showing impressive growth due to increased consumer demand for healthier products, aligning with broader trends favoring "better-for-you" options [4]. - UNFI is optimizing its distribution network to enhance efficiency, including consolidating its distribution center in Fort Wayne, IN, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and financial flexibility [7]. - Lean management practices have led to a reduction in operating expenses to 12.6% of net sales from 13% year-over-year, reflecting disciplined execution [8]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal second quarter, adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately 13.3% year-over-year to around $145 million, while adjusted earnings per share surged 214.3% to 22 cents from 7 cents in the prior-year quarter [9]. - However, UNFI's gross margin narrowed to 13.1% from 13.3% year-over-year, primarily due to a weaker wholesale margin rate [11]. Challenges - UNFI's retail segment faced a 3.3% decline in total retail sales year-over-year, attributed to the closure of five stores, with same-store sales falling by approximately 40 basis points [10]. - Ongoing margin pressures and rising operational costs may limit the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives [12]. Valuation - UNFI is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 22.31X, which is above the industry average of 15.75X, suggesting potential overvaluation [13]. Investment Considerations - The recent stock rally reflects investor confidence due to operational execution and efficiency gains, but challenges in retail and high valuation indicate that current investors may benefit from holding, while new investors might wait for stabilization [15].