经济数据疲软催动美债涨势 市场押注美联储年内两次降息

Group 1 - The recent economic data indicates a slowdown in economic activity and cooling inflation, supporting expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][4] - The yield on two-year Treasury bonds fell by 10 basis points to 3.95%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield also dropped by approximately 10 basis points to 4.43% [4] - Wall Street strategists, including those from JPMorgan, have raised their yield forecasts due to delayed expectations for the Fed to resume easing policies [1][4] Group 2 - April saw a surprising decline in producer prices, the largest drop in five years, indicating that businesses are absorbing some impacts from tariffs [4] - Retail sales growth has significantly slowed as consumers reduce spending on imported goods due to concerns over rising prices from tariffs [4] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal trajectory have increased as a large tax cut proposal from Republican lawmakers progresses, which is expected to exacerbate the federal deficit and increase government debt burden [4][5] Group 3 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns that the rising federal deficit and debt burden could lead to inflation risks and long-term interest rate increases, potentially slowing growth and causing stagflation [5] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue approximately $2 trillion next year to cover the federal deficit, with at least $9.3 trillion of federal debt maturing within a year [5] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates while awaiting clearer information on how government trade policies will impact economic growth and inflation [5]