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智库策论丨美日政府债务率历史演进与启示
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-16 01:11

Core Viewpoint - China should promote economic growth to stabilize debt, maintain policy rationality and coherence, and focus on the healthy management of private sector debt to ensure debt sustainability through various dimensions such as optimizing industrial structure, strengthening policy coordination, and enhancing debt management and risk prevention, thereby achieving robust economic development [3][16]. Group 1: U.S. Government Debt Rate Evolution - The U.S. government debt rate has evolved through two main phases since the 1940s, with a decline from the 1940s to the late 1970s due to post-war reconstruction and a subsequent rise starting in the 1980s influenced by economic conditions and political factors [5][6]. - The first phase saw a decrease in debt rate due to fiscal policies aimed at reducing military and infrastructure spending, leading to budget surpluses during certain years [5]. - The second phase, beginning with Reagan's administration, marked a continuous increase in debt rate driven by large tax cuts and increased government spending, exacerbated by economic downturns and political decisions [6][7]. Group 2: Japanese Government Debt Rate Characteristics - Japan's government debt rate has shown a long-term upward trend influenced by social security expenditures and economic bubbles, with significant fluctuations during economic crises [10][11]. - The debt rate increased sharply post-1990 due to the bursting of the economic bubble, leading to extensive fiscal measures to stabilize the economy, resulting in an average annual growth of about 7.8% in debt rate during the following years [12]. - The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated Japan's debt situation, pushing the debt rate to 259%, a significant increase of approximately 22.3 percentage points from 2019 [12][14]. Group 3: Implications for China - Economic growth is the core support for debt stability, as evidenced by the U.S. and Japan's historical experiences, suggesting that China should optimize its industrial structure and promote technological innovation to enhance GDP growth and ensure debt growth aligns with economic and fiscal revenue growth [16][17]. - Policy rationality and coherence are crucial, as political interference in fiscal decisions has led to rising debt in the U.S. and Japan; thus, China should focus on long-term strategic considerations in policy-making to avoid short-term debt risks [17][18]. - The health of the private sector is key to a virtuous debt cycle, and China should manage private sector debt effectively, encouraging reasonable leverage during economic upturns and enhancing financial services during downturns to stabilize the economy [18][19]. - Ensuring debt sustainability requires a multi-dimensional approach, including optimizing fiscal revenue structures, enhancing tax collection efficiency, and improving the sustainability of social security systems to balance debt utilization and risk prevention [18][19].