美债崩了！全球金融市场迎来“大地震”？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield nearing 5%, indicates a significant market shift, reminiscent of the previous month's turmoil in the bond market [1] Group 1: Reasons for the Surge in Treasury Yields - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, as recent statements from Fed officials suggest a cautious approach despite a slowdown in April's inflation data [1] - There is an increasing supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. Treasury market, with high levels of debt issuance and upcoming debt repayments, compounded by the Fed's balance sheet reduction and foreign central banks reducing their holdings [1] Group 2: Concerns Regarding U.S. Government Debt - As of May 13, 2025, the total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.21 trillion, raising concerns about the government's ability to service its debt amid an impending tax cut plan that could exacerbate fiscal deficits [2] - The acceleration of global "de-dollarization" efforts, driven by U.S. policies, has led to a decline in confidence in dollar assets, prompting countries to explore alternative currencies for transactions and reserves [2] Group 3: Global Market Implications - The rise in Treasury yields is expected to pressure global risk asset prices, leading to potential asset devaluation for investors holding Treasuries and increased financing costs for businesses and governments [3] - Emerging markets may face heightened financial vulnerabilities, with increased capital outflows and currency adjustment pressures due to rising global capital costs [3] - The decline in U.S. Treasury creditworthiness raises questions about the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, potentially leading to a restructuring of the global monetary system [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The volatility in the U.S. Treasury market poses significant risks for the global financial landscape, with the possibility of continued yield increases in the coming months [4] - The implications of a Treasury "collapse" could signal the beginning of a broader financial upheaval, prompting investors to remain vigilant and prepare for potential market fluctuations [4] - The future of the dollar's dominance and the evolution of the global monetary system remain uncertain, with potential long-term impacts on the global economy [4]