现货黄金震荡反弹，上海金ETF(159830)开盘涨近2%，已实现连续3日净流入

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF is experiencing significant inflows and strong performance, with expectations for gold prices to potentially exceed $4,500 per ounce in 2025 due to various economic factors [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of May 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a net value increase of 31.69% over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.00% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 6 months and a maximum gain of 8.00% [3]. - The average monthly return for the ETF during up months is 3.04%, with a total annual profit percentage of 100.00% and a monthly profit probability of 66.92% [3]. - The Sharpe ratio for the ETF over the past year is 2.86, placing it in the top 2 out of 7 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Historical analysis suggests that the current gold price increase cycle has not yet fully played out, with significant upward potential remaining [4]. - The forecast for 2025 includes expectations of a decline in the US dollar index to 90 and three rate cuts (approximately 75 basis points), which could support higher gold prices [4]. - The anticipated implementation of "Tariff 2.0" in June and increasing "stagflation" pressures in the US are expected to trigger a new gold price rally [4].