花旗：维持中国神华买入评级 目标价32.70港元

Group 1: Core Insights - Citigroup has set a target price of HKD 32.70 for China Shenhua (601088) based on the expected 2025 EV/EBITDA valuation, with a buy rating [1] - The company’s coal, power, railway, port, and coal-to-chemical businesses have been assigned valuation multiples of 3.7x, 9.9x, 5.6x, 10.8x, and 5.9x respectively, aligning with the average levels in the H-share market [1] - The target price corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 10.5x and a P/B ratio of 1.3x for 2025 [1] Group 2: Coal Price Outlook - In April 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 16% year-on-year, with management expecting total imports for the year to fall below 500 million tons, down from approximately 540 million tons in 2024 [2] - With rising summer electricity demand and positive outcomes from US-China tariff negotiations, management anticipates a rebound in China's thermal coal consumption starting in early June, which will support coal prices [2] Group 3: Production Costs and Pricing - The company expects a year-on-year increase of about 6% in the unit cost of self-produced coal in 2025, primarily due to rising labor costs and increased mining depth [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the electricity price for Shenhua decreased, mainly due to price reductions in Guangdong and Fujian provinces where most of its power plants are located [4] - Despite falling coal prices, management believes that China will not significantly reduce coal production, with some mines potentially increasing output to maintain profit levels [5] Group 4: Capital Expenditure - For the Xinjie coal mine project, the unit capital expenditure for the first and second mines is higher than CNY 2000 per ton, while the unit capital expenditure for the third to sixth mines will be lower due to preparatory capital expenditures [6]