邓正红能源软实力：协议预期主导地缘 经济下行与电动车挤压全球石油需求增长

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that market expectations are leaning towards a potential nuclear agreement between the US and Iran, leading to a decline in oil prices due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums [1][2][3] - As of May 15, 2023, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by $1.53 to $61.62 per barrel, a decrease of 2.42%, while Brent crude oil dropped by $1.56 to $64.53 per barrel, a decline of 2.36% [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil demand growth will slow to an average of 650,000 barrels per day for the remainder of the year, down from 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter [2] Group 2 - The potential nuclear agreement could allow Iran to increase its oil exports by 1 million barrels per day, which may disrupt the balance of the oil supply chain [1][3] - The IEA has adjusted its 2025 oil demand growth forecast down to 650,000 barrels per day, reflecting pressures from economic downturns and energy transitions, while raising the 2026 forecast to 760,000 barrels per day [4] - OPEC may accelerate its production cut plans to counterbalance the potential return of Iranian oil to the market, although internal coordination issues among member countries like Kazakhstan could pose challenges [4]