油价又要变！最新预测来了

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease by approximately 230 yuan per ton, marking the fifth decline of the year, with 92-octane gasoline prices returning to around 6 yuan per liter in multiple regions [1][2] Pricing Mechanism - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is based on the weighted average price of international crude oil over the past 10 working days compared to the previous week [1] - If the price change per ton is less than 50 yuan, no adjustment will be made, and the unadjusted amount will be carried over to the next pricing cycle [1] Market Analysis - During the current pricing cycle (from April 30 to May 19), international crude oil prices experienced a rebound after an initial decline due to OPEC+ unexpectedly increasing production, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1] - The average international oil price has decreased compared to the previous cycle, resulting in a negative reference crude oil change rate of -5.23% as of May 15 [1] Consumer Impact - Analysts predict that if the price drop is implemented, the price of 92-octane gasoline will decrease by approximately 0.18 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel will drop by around 0.2 yuan per liter [2] - For consumers, this price adjustment will lower fuel costs for personal vehicles and logistics during the next pricing cycle (May 19 to June 3) [2] Historical Context - Since the beginning of the year, domestic oil prices have undergone nine adjustments, resulting in three increases, four decreases, and two instances of no change [2] - After the upcoming adjustment, the pricing situation for 2025 will shift to three increases, five decreases, and two instances of no change [2]