黄金长牛仅在“婴儿期”，机构喊出8900美元目标价！

Core Viewpoint - Incrementum AG's annual report indicates that despite the surge in gold prices to a record $3,500 per ounce, the long-term bull market for gold is still in its early stages, with expectations of higher price increases in the latter half of this decade [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - The research team led by Ronald-Peter Stferle and Mark Valek forecasts that gold could reach $4,800 per ounce by 2030, with a potential "bull market scenario" pushing prices up to $8,900 due to rising inflation threats [1] - Since the initial prediction in 2020, gold prices have increased by 92%, yet its allocation in overall investment portfolios remains around 1% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the current phase of the bull market is characterized by increasing media optimism, which could lead to a "mania phase" [1] - Although gold prices have performed well this year, they remain moderate compared to historical bull markets, with 22 new highs recorded as of April 30, compared to 43 last year [1] Group 3: Demand Drivers - Incrementum anticipates that investment demand will become a new driving force for gold prices, as investors seek to hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, despite current inflows into gold ETFs lagging behind stocks and bonds [1] - Central bank demand is highlighted as a significant support for gold prices, but the report suggests that the influx of Western financial investors is still awaited [1] Group 4: Economic Context - The report critiques the U.S. government's tightening policies, suggesting they may push the economy towards recession, which could ultimately benefit gold as the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in response to economic slowdowns [1] - Analysts warn that a weak dollar policy could undermine currency credibility and deter essential capital inflows, potentially leading to inflation and reduced purchasing power [2]