亚辉龙(688575)：发光业务高增长 积极布局AI检验+出海

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading player in the domestic autoimmune diagnostics sector, achieving high growth in the chemiluminescence field through a strategy of "specialized hospital entry and routine volume expansion," with a non-COVID self-owned business revenue of 1.672 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.13% [1][3] Group 1: Business Performance - The company has established itself as a leader in the chemiluminescence field, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.4% for non-COVID self-owned business from 2020 to 2024, and a CAGR of 35.9% specifically for chemiluminescence business [2] - In 2024, the company's non-COVID self-owned business revenue reached 1.672 billion yuan, with domestic revenue of 1.422 billion yuan (up 21.14%) and overseas revenue of 250 million yuan (up 64.78%) [3][4] - The company is actively adjusting channel inventory, which has led to short-term performance pressure, but is expected to recover high growth in the second half of 2025 due to a low base effect from the previous year [3] Group 2: Market Environment - The IVD sector is facing pressure from policies such as centralized procurement and DRG cost control, with the overall revenue and net profit of the IVD sector expected to decline by 6.45% and 64.98% respectively in 2024 [3][4] - The domestic chemiluminescence market is projected to reach 47.14 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 20% from 2018 to 2023, indicating significant room for domestic replacement as imported brands still hold over 70% market share [4] Group 3: AI and Technological Development - The company is leveraging AI technology to accelerate the development of smart laboratories and product transformation in response to clinical needs, having established a subsidiary focused on intelligent information systems [5] - The company has developed several AI-driven products, including the iTLA Max automated laboratory system and the ANA intelligent interpretation system, which enhance its competitive edge in the medical field [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in revenue and profit, with projected revenues of 2.322 billion yuan, 2.759 billion yuan, and 3.247 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.45%, 18.80%, and 17.69% respectively [6][7] - The company aims to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with profit growth anticipated to outpace revenue growth in the future [6]