3 6 Ke·2025-05-16 06:54Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards localized production due to geopolitical risks and supply chain diversification, with the U.S. initiating investigations into tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals to assess national security risks [2][3][7]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - The semiconductor supply chain is complex and cannot be independently managed by any single country, leading to increased unpredictability in the industry [2][3]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has begun investigations into the semiconductor supply chain, focusing on potential national security risks associated with imports [2][3]. - The investigation will evaluate reliance on specific countries and may recommend corrective measures, including tariffs or import quotas, within 270 days [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Production - The semiconductor industry is facing a turning point, with countries pushing for localized production to ensure economic security, which may lead to potential oversupply risks [3][7]. - The U.S. is projected to have semiconductor sales of $60.7 billion in 2024, accounting for 35% of the global market, while its production capacity is only about 10% of the global total [5][6]. - Global plans for new semiconductor factories are set to increase by over 30% from 2021-2023 to 2025-2027, driven by geopolitical tensions and local support for the industry [7]. Group 3: Company Strategies and Investments - Companies like TSMC and Samsung are significantly impacted by tariffs and are investing in U.S. operations, although assembly processes remain in Asia [5][6]. - NVIDIA has announced plans for domestic production of its AI semiconductor "Blackwell" and AI servers in the U.S., with a potential production scale of up to $500 billion over the next four years [5][6]. - The cost of producing advanced semiconductors in the U.S. is approximately 10% higher than in Taiwan, raising concerns about the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing if tariffs are imposed on essential manufacturing equipment [6]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The global economic slowdown is negatively affecting sales of personal computers, smartphones, and electric vehicles, which could lead to an oversupply in the semiconductor market if production increases without corresponding demand [8].