Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-05-16 07:08Group 1 - UBS Vice Chairman and Co-Head of Asia Corporate Clients, Li Zhengguo, forecasts that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut cycle in July, expecting a total of three cuts throughout the year, which will positively impact the stock and bond markets [1] - Li maintains the annual target for the Hang Seng Index at 24,500 points, indicating a stable outlook for the index despite potential economic challenges [1] - If the U.S. maintains current tariffs of 20% and 10% in the third and fourth quarters, it could drag down China's GDP by 1-1.5 percentage points, leading to a revised GDP growth forecast of 3.7-4% for the year [1] Group 2 - UBS's Hu Linghan highlights three reasons why A-share companies prefer Hong Kong for overseas financing: narrowing AH share price differentials, increased support from foreign investors, and the high convenience of financing in Hong Kong [2] - The narrowing of AH share price differentials reflects improved market confidence in Hong Kong's liquidity, suggesting that future listings of leading companies may see reduced discounts compared to past levels of 30%-40% [1][2] - Hu notes that tariffs significantly impact the consumer sector, particularly for imported goods, while export-intensive industries may benefit from tariff delays, necessitating close monitoring of future policy changes [2]