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二季度大豆供应充足 豆油预计仍震荡偏弱运行为主

Market Overview - As of May 14, domestic first-grade soybean oil spot price reached 8215 CNY/ton, an increase of 79 CNY/ton (0.97%) from May 12, and up by 66 CNY/ton (0.81%) from May 13 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that for the week ending May 8, net sales of soybean oil for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 14,000 tons, slightly down from 15,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were 0 tons, compared to 100 tons the prior week [1] - U.S. soybean oil export shipments for the 2024/2025 marketing year totaled 51,000 tons, up from 35,000 tons the previous week [1] - Approximately 17% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought as of May 13, up from 15% the previous week and significantly higher than 9% the same time last year [1] Industry Insights - According to Ruida Futures, domestic oil mills are operating at low capacity due to tight soybean oil supply, but with a significant amount of soybeans arriving at ports, inventory levels are normalizing. Oil mill operating rates are expected to rise, leading to a recovery in soybean oil stocks. However, seasonal supply pressure from South American soybeans may keep soybean prices under pressure [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that U.S. soybean oil has experienced a significant decline, reversing previous gains due to delays in the RVO policy announcement, which has increased market volatility. The overall trend indicates a substantial demand for raw materials in the biodiesel sector, but price fluctuations may increase due to various factors including raw material prices and policy subsidies [3]