Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline of nearly 3% in international gold prices has sparked extensive discussion in the investment community regarding whether the gold bull market has ended, revealing a complex interplay of short-term bearish and long-term bullish factors in the gold market [1][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The recent "truce" agreement between China and the U.S. on tariff issues, which involves suspending 24% of tariffs while maintaining a 10% baseline rate and providing a 90-day buffer, has alleviated previous trade tensions, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and a corresponding decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. - Historical context shows that after the easing of trade tensions in 2018, gold prices experienced a short-term decline of 15%, but rebounded by 30% within 12 months as geopolitical conflicts resurfaced, indicating that current geopolitical instability could still elevate gold's safe-haven premium [3][5]. Monetary Policy - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have shifted from July to September due to the truce, with overall rate cut expectations for the year being adjusted downward, resulting in a significant rise in the U.S. dollar index and a corresponding increase in U.S. Treasury yields, which diminishes the attractiveness of non-yielding gold [3][5]. - Despite a temporary dip in inflation expectations following lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, the Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to rate cuts, which could lead to increased volatility in the gold market [5]. Long-term Investment Logic - The ongoing accumulation of gold by global central banks, particularly from emerging markets, provides a solid support base for gold prices, with the World Gold Council reporting that central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in Q1 2025, with over 70% of this coming from emerging markets [5]. - The persistent high U.S. fiscal deficit rate of 6% and negative real interest rates continue to highlight gold's anti-inflation properties, suggesting that long-term demand for gold remains robust despite short-term market fluctuations [5]. Investment Management Tools - The introduction of the "Wanzhou Wallet" by Wanzhou Gold Industry enhances capital management for investors, allowing for quick fund injections as backup capital to avoid missing out on buying opportunities during market volatility [7]. - The wallet's features, including instant fund transfers with MT5 accounts and intelligent stop-loss functions, aim to improve capital turnover efficiency and protect investors' principal during significant price fluctuations in the gold market [7].
金价回调是陷阱还是机会?万洲钱包智能止损为投资者提供应急指南
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-16 09:01