集装箱运输预订量飙升277％，一箱难求再现，对美出口预计六七月迎来高峰

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff changes have led to a surge in shipping demand from China to the U.S., with container bookings increasing by 277% following the tariff reductions, indicating a significant uptick in trade activity between the two countries [2][3]. Shipping Demand and Pricing - The average booking volume for standard containers rose from 5,709 to 21,530 within a week, reflecting heightened shipping activity [2]. - Despite the increase in bookings, the actual shipping volume in May has remained stable, with only slight variations in the number of container ships departing for the U.S. [2]. - Shipping prices have surged, with major shipping companies raising rates for 40-foot containers to between $3,500 and $6,100 for routes to the U.S. West Coast [5][6]. Impact on Exporters - Many exporters are experiencing a backlog of orders due to previous tariff uncertainties, leading to a concentrated effort to ship goods to U.S. clients [4][5]. - The production cycle for goods typically takes about a month, suggesting that shipping volumes will continue to rise in the coming weeks as orders are fulfilled [3]. Market Dynamics - The Baltic Dry Index has seen a notable increase, indicating a broader trend of rising shipping costs across various routes [6]. - The current shipping price increases are seen as just the beginning, with further hikes expected in June due to seasonal demand [6]. - The shipping industry is facing a potential capacity crunch, as many shipping companies have reduced their fleet sizes despite an increase in demand [8]. Trade Relations - The U.S. remains China's largest export destination, and despite ongoing trade tensions, the bilateral trade volume is projected to reach $688.28 billion in 2024 [9][10]. - The dynamics of U.S.-China trade have shifted since 2018, with a reduced dependency on the U.S. market for Chinese exports, although recent trends indicate a resurgence in export activity [10].