McDonald's Trades Near 52-Week High: Can the Stock Keep Sizzling?

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) demonstrates strong market performance with shares nearing a 52-week high, reflecting positive investor sentiment and a resilient business model [1][2]. Price Performance - MCD shares closed at $314.48, just 3.6% below its 52-week high, while the stock has increased by 8% over the past six months, contrasting with a 1.6% decline in the industry [1]. - The stock trades above its 50-day simple moving average of$ 310.53, indicating sustained upward momentum [2]. Growth Projections - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have risen by 2 cents and 3 cents to $12.23 and$ 13.20, respectively, with year-over-year increases of 4.4% and 7.9% [7]. - Revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $26.34 billion and$ 27.81 billion, reflecting year-over-year improvements of 1.6% and 5.6% [7]. Expansion Efforts - McDonald's plans to open 2,200 new restaurants globally in 2025, with a goal of 50,000 openings by 2027, focusing on both existing and new markets [8]. - The company is enhancing its core menu offerings and has launched the McValue platform to improve customer choice and satisfaction [9]. Operational Improvements - The Best Burger initiative aims to enhance kitchen execution and quality, with plans to roll out globally by the end of 2026 [10]. - Continued investment in digital and technology is expected to drive long-term efficiencies and improve customer experience through enhanced delivery services [11]. Customer Engagement - The delivery sales mix has doubled in key markets, with a goal to increase mobile app delivery sales to 30% by 2027 [12]. - The loyalty program has seen significant growth, with sales to loyalty members reaching $30 billion in 2024, and an expectation to expand the active user base to 250 million by 2027 [14]. Valuation - McDonald's is currently valued at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 25.03X, which is lower than the industry average of 26.15X, indicating a potential investment opportunity [15][16]. Traffic Concerns - In Q1 2025, McDonald's faced a decline in global comparable sales due to reduced traffic from low and middle-income consumers, with a nearly 10% drop in low-income traffic year-over-year [18]. - The company acknowledges the importance of affordability and is reinforcing its value platforms to attract pressured consumer segments [19]. Overall Assessment - McDonald's maintains a fundamentally strong position with robust expansion plans and effective digital strategies, although recent traffic declines among lower-income consumers highlight challenges in the current economic environment [20].