BABA(09988) 格隆汇· Ge Long Hui·2025-05-16 17:37Core Insights - Alibaba reported FY2025 Q4 results with revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a 6.6% increase, and CMR of 71.1 billion yuan, up 12% [1] - The e-commerce segment showed stronger-than-expected revenue and profit growth, while cloud business revenue reached 30.1 billion yuan, growing 18% [1][3] - The company maintains a "strong buy" rating, highlighting the potential for e-commerce monetization and long-term growth in AI and cloud services [1][4] E-commerce Segment - Taotian Group's customer management revenue was 71.1 billion yuan, a 12% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 7.6% [2] - The increase in monetization rate is driven by the introduction of a 0.6% basic software service fee and improved penetration of promotional tools [2] - Adjusted EBITA for Taotian was 41.7 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, also surpassing consensus expectations [2] Cloud Business - The Cloud Intelligence Group achieved revenue of 30.1 billion yuan, an 18% increase, slightly above the consensus estimate of 16.8% [3] - Adjusted EBITA for the cloud segment was 2.4 billion yuan, a significant 69% increase, with an EBITA margin of 8.0% [3] - The company plans to invest 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years to meet growing customer demand [3] Investment Outlook - The company is optimistic about the potential for increased e-commerce monetization and long-term growth in cloud and AI businesses [4] - Projected Non-GAAP net profits for FY2026-2028 are 184.8 billion yuan, 208.1 billion yuan, and 227.6 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Target price set at 153 HKD per share, with a 12x PE for e-commerce and 5x PS for cloud business [4]