阿里巴巴-W(9988.HK)：CMR重回两位数增长 AI+云逐步成为新增长引擎

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba achieved revenue of 236.45 billion yuan in FY2025 Q4, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.57%, with Non-GAAP net profit of 29.85 billion yuan, up 22.23% year-on-year. The core business of Taobao and Tmall showed further recovery, maintaining positive profit growth, and CMR revenue returned to double-digit growth [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - CMR revenue reached 71.08 billion yuan, growing 11.8% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA of 41.75 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, continuing to maintain positive growth [1][2]. - Cloud Intelligence Group reported revenue of 30.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.71%, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [2]. - Cainiao Group's revenue decreased by 12.15% year-on-year to 21.57 billion yuan, influenced by adjustments in revenue recognition [2]. Capital Expenditure and Market Conditions - Capital expenditure (CapEx) for the quarter was 24.6 billion yuan, lower than market expectations, compared to 31.4 billion yuan in the previous quarter. The tightening of export controls on high-end AI chips has led to longer order cycles for domestic companies [3]. - The impact of the recent Huawei Ascend ban on Alibaba and other domestic cloud service providers remains to be observed, as the legal and commercial risks associated with using Ascend chips are still unclear [3]. Future Projections - Revenue growth for Alibaba is projected to be 9.73% and 11.08% for FY2026 and FY2027, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit growth of 10.38% and 10.05% for the same periods [4]. - The estimated valuation for Taobao and Cloud Intelligence Group is $143.94 and $33.52 per ADS, respectively, leading to a target price of $177.45 per ADS [4].