吴劲草：全球关税战硝烟滚滚，为何义乌“云淡风轻”？

Core Viewpoint - The recent shift in US tariff policy and the temporary pause in the trade war between China and the US highlight the need for rational expectations regarding the long-term complexities and challenges in Sino-US economic relations [1] Group 1: Impact of Tariff Changes - The US tariff increases have had a minimal impact on exports from Yiwu, indicating a level of calm among Yiwu merchants despite the trade tensions [3][4] - The recent agreement on tariffs has not significantly altered trade dynamics, as the core issue remains the US's concern over China's competitive manufacturing capabilities [9][10] Group 2: Yiwu's Role in Global Trade - Yiwu International Trade City serves as a crucial platform for China's manufacturing competitiveness, attracting non-US market buyers from regions like the Middle East and Africa [1][8] - The unique procurement model in Yiwu, which focuses on non-branded goods, allows for a diverse range of products to be sold collectively, differentiating it from traditional brand-led procurement models [6][12] Group 3: Merchant Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Yiwu merchants exhibit a lack of clear understanding regarding US trade policies, leading to a sense of indifference rather than active concern [5][13] - Overseas buyers are primarily driven by their commercial needs and the quality of Chinese products, rather than the political climate between the US and China [14] Group 4: Production Capacity and Market Opportunities - China's manufacturing capacity, particularly in consumer goods, is robust but faces domestic demand limitations, necessitating export channels to prevent overcapacity [8][12] - The overall trade with the US constitutes only about 15% of China's total trade, suggesting that other global markets can compensate for any potential losses from the US market [12]