Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 46.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and non-IFRS net profit of 750 million yuan, up 13% year-on-year, indicating a positive outlook for long-term profit release [1][2] Revenue Summary - Integrated supply chain business showed steady growth, with client revenue increasing by 13% year-on-year to 23.2 billion yuan, driven by a 14% increase in revenue from JD Group to 14.7 billion yuan, reflecting strong collaboration and efficiency improvements [1] - External client revenue rose by 12% year-on-year to 8.5 billion yuan, with the number of clients increasing by 14% to 63,600, although average revenue per client decreased by 2% to 134,000 yuan, indicating potential for long-term improvement [1] - Revenue from express and freight services increased by 10% year-on-year to 23.8 billion yuan, with external revenue accounting for 69%, maintaining a high level [1] Cost and Expense Summary - Operating costs increased by 12% year-on-year, with specific costs such as employee benefits, outsourcing, and other operating costs rising by 14%, 18%, and 6% respectively, while rental costs decreased by 9% [2] - Gross margin slightly declined by 0.5 percentage points to 7.2% due to increased investment in transportation and delivery resources aimed at expanding customer base and improving service quality [2] - Total expenses for Q1 2025 were 3.18 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year, with the expense ratio decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 6.8% [2] Development Trends - The company is expected to enter a phase of simultaneous scale expansion and product upgrades in 2025, focusing on four key drivers: integration of the TaoTian platform for customer and revenue growth, optimization of operational efficiency in supply chain and express services, new market opportunities from international business and overseas warehouse construction, and synergy from integration with Debon Network [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on continuous improvement in operational efficiency and realization of scale effects, the non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 35% to 8.54 billion yuan, with a projected 10% growth to 9.43 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - The current price corresponds to 8.5 times and 7.6 times non-IFRS P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price of 18.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 57.3% from the current stock price [2]
京东物流(02618.HK)：1Q营收利润双位数增长 看好中长期提质增效