JD LOGISTICS(02618.HK)：DOUBLE-DIGIT REVENUE AND PROFIT GROWTH IN 1Q25; UPBEAT ON QUALITY AND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT IN MEDIUM AND LONG TERM

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported 1Q25 results that met expectations, with revenue growth driven by increased investment in product competitiveness and a focus on medium to long-term profit growth [1]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for 1Q25 increased by 11% YoY to Rmb46.97 billion, with non-IFRS net profit rising 13% YoY to Rmb751 million [1]. - Revenue from the integrated supply chain business grew 13% YoY to Rmb23.2 billion, with JD.com contributing Rmb14.7 billion, a 14% YoY increase [2]. - Revenue from external customers rose 12% YoY to Rmb8.5 billion, with the number of customers increasing by 14% YoY to 63,601 [3]. - Revenue from express delivery and freight delivery industries increased by 10% YoY to Rmb23.8 billion, maintaining a high external revenue proportion of about 70% [4]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Operating costs rose 12% YoY, with specific increases in employee compensation (+14%), outsourcing costs (+18%), and other operating costs (+6%) [5]. - Gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 7.2%, attributed to increased investments in transportation and delivery resources [5]. - Total expenses rose 1.3% YoY to Rmb3.18 billion, with the expense proportion in revenue decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 6.8% [5]. Future Trends and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to enter a development phase in 2025, focusing on scale expansion and product upgrades, driven by channel integration with the Taotian platform and improvements in operational efficiency [6]. - Expansion of overseas warehouses is anticipated to unlock new market opportunities for the international business [7]. - Integration with Deppon's network is expected to enhance economies of scale [7]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 35% to Rmb8.54 billion, with a new forecast for 2026 at Rmb9.43 billion, reflecting a 10% YoY increase [7]. - The stock is currently trading at 8.5x 2025e and 7.6x 2026e non-IFRS P/E, with a target price of HK$18.5, indicating a potential upside of 57.3% [7].