美联储酝酿调整政策框架 降息步调愈发扑朔迷离

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is considering adjustments to its monetary policy framework due to significant changes in the economic and financial environment since 2020, particularly in balancing employment and inflation goals [1][2][6] - The upcoming review of the monetary policy framework is the first since 2020, with the Fed aiming to adapt to the current high inflation and interest rate environment [2][3] - Despite the potential framework revisions, anchoring inflation expectations remains a critical task for the Fed, as future inflation may become more volatile [3][4] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates that the U.S. economy has not shown clear signs of "stagflation," with consumer spending and investment remaining robust despite a contraction in GDP [4][5] - The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, below market expectations, suggesting a trend of easing inflation [4][5] - However, concerns persist regarding the long-term impact of U.S. trade policies on inflation, which may take time to fully manifest in economic data [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that while the Fed is poised to adjust its monetary policy framework, it is unlikely to affect current policy decisions, with a preference for a "wait and see" approach [6][7] - The labor market remains strong, and there are no immediate signs of economic deterioration, which diminishes the urgency for the Fed to lower interest rates [6][7] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted, with predictions now leaning towards a potential cut in December rather than July, reflecting increased uncertainty [6][7]