【UNFX课堂】美联储主席鲍威尔政策立场深度解析

Economic Status - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex tug-of-war, with inflation declining but facing persistent resistance, while overall growth and employment data show resilience, masking deeper structural issues [1][2] - As of March 2025, the core PCE year-on-year growth rate is approximately 2.7%-2.8%, indicating challenges in the "last mile" of inflation reduction, largely due to structural factors such as supply chain regionalization and geopolitical tensions [2] - The job market shows significant mismatches, with a low unemployment rate of about 4.2% as of April 2025, but notable layoffs in the tech sector and job shortages in manufacturing [3][4] Policy Framework Adjustments - The Federal Reserve recognizes the need for adaptive adjustments to its policy framework to better respond to complex shocks, moving from an average inflation targeting (AIT) approach to a more forward-looking range management [6][7] - Discussions around expanding liquidity support tools, including the potential expansion of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and the possibility of reintroducing yield curve control (YCC) under extreme market conditions, aim to enhance financial system resilience [7][8] External Shocks and Market Impact - The comprehensive tariff strategy initiated during the Trump administration is impacting the U.S. economy through direct cost transmission and supply chain restructuring, leading to varied effects across different industry sectors [8][9] - The erosion of the dollar's dominance due to emerging economies pushing for local currency settlements and central banks exploring digital currencies may increase volatility in the dollar's exchange rate and affect global asset allocation strategies [9][10] Future Outlook - The market is highly focused on when the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates, with a clear "data-dependent" threshold set by Powell, emphasizing the importance of core PCE trends and labor market conditions [10][11] - The potential upward shift in the long-term neutral interest rate (r*) from around 0.5% pre-pandemic to 1.5%-2% suggests a systemic revaluation of capital markets, impacting asset valuations and increasing liquidity and repayment risks for high-leverage sectors [11][12]